Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

What will be the impact of the trade war and tariffs on Canadian rails? He doesn't know, but wouldn't worry too much. Note that in the past month CNR has gone up while CP has gone down. CP may be more impacted, but it's also dealt with a strike. He prefers CNR and still likes it. They have the Chicago Advantage with their line running through Chicago without getting stuck in that huge hub. CNR is a great proxy on the Canadian economy.

CNR-T/CP-T and Tariffs. It is very early to judge this. Automotive is a small percent of their business. Intermodal is a bigger issue. He thinks companies that move goods around the world will go down if we are in a period of protracted trade wars.

CN Rail versus CP. He does not see the tariff war directly impacting the rail companies. CN (CNR-T) is a little more exposed to cross-border trade, however. CN is a core holding in his portfolio. He does not hold CP. He would not add to his position, rather would continue to hold.

CN (CNR-T) versus CP (CP-T). He would love to see CNR-T to pullback to $83 and has a model price of $120. He has a model price on CP-T of $261. There is more upside potential on CNR-T.

Canadian National (CNR-T) vs Canadial Pacific (CP-T). He owns CNR-T and thinks CP is more commodity based (grains and agriculture and lumber). CNR-T moves more goods. Oil companies are careful to over committing to rail, because it is more expensive to ship than by pipe. Buy CP if you thing more commodity shipments will occur. Buy CN if you think more inter-modal goods will be shipped.

He is modelling 12% EPS growth and is trading at a not a bad multiple compared to the group. He likes this and it will probably go higher. In a pinch, he thinks this is a better value than Canadian National (CNR-T) and it would be one he would be buying.

Closed at $210, and he has a model price of $238. When it pulled back to $189, that was a good price. He would love this to come back to $149. This is not too expensive. When it does rally, it will probably rally up to $238 or $237. For fresh capital, there is more and better ideas out there.

Has been the most successful rail stock in the last 5 years. His pick has been Canadian National (CNR-T), but rail stocks are GDP growth plus 2%-3%. They have their cost ratio way down. You will do very well on a longer-term view, but if we do have a slowdown in North America, rail stocks are not going to be immune.

Feels this is better value than Canadian National (CNR-T). The management team is very, very good. They do an excellent job in fixing the business. Intermodal is an area of long-term growth in terms of pricing and volume, and he likes the business model. They have pricing power and an excellent network. They are very good at allocating capital. Dividend yield of about 1.2%.

This wants to trade at $228. His model price valuation is at $220. He sees a $25 upside that could happen at any time. If you are a trader, that is a potential. From a fundamental point of long-term view, if it got back to $143.74, that would be a great opportunity. He is not that high on it, but there is a possible trade coming up on it.

Canadian National (CNR-T) and Canadian Pacific (CP-T). These have both lagged relative to the market. The market tends to allocate cash toward certain areas and groups at the expense of others. He thinks it is more of a function of what is going on. Overall, the valuation is not super compelling. If it is a long-term call you are looking for, he would just buy them and put them away.

(Market Call Minute.) Rails are a great business, and this one has corrected a bit. Would prefer something like Union Pacific (UNP-N) or Canadian National (CNR-T).

He is looking to pick up both Canadian National (CNR-T) and this one. The chart shows a long upward trend from early 2016, and has just started breaking down through the trend line. It is right at the 200-day moving average and there is a lot of resistance there. If we get the procyclical move that he is expecting, then rails should be part of that.

He likes the rails and is a really great sector to be in. They’ve consolidated over the last 15-20 years and he can’t see much more consolidation. It’s much more environmentally friendly than trucking. There are better margins because of the technology they’ve put in. If there is a decent pickup in commodities over the next little while, these companies will do very, very well.

Rails have done well. His model price on this is $232, an 8% premium to the existing price. A year from now, with earnings estimates, it is actually $275. A good holding.