Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO) Buy, Sell or…

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Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

68.68

-1.59 (2.26%)

as of Aug 25, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

1405 watching

Investor Insights

Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 99 opinions in the last 12 months.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has garnered a mixed but generally favorable response from various experts in the energy sector. Many affirm its strong management and operational efficiency, alongside its consistent dividend growth, which has been maintained for over 25 years. Despite concerns regarding fluctuations in oil prices and geopolitical issues impacting energy markets, analysts highlight CNQ's resilience and stability, making it a preferred choice among oil and gas companies in Canada. There's a recurrent theme of cautious optimism, with several reviews indicating it as a long-term hold while suggesting that current valuations may limit short-term upside. The company's ability to generate cash flow even at lower oil prices and its focus on returning capital to shareholders have been positively noted, although there's also recognition of the potential volatility tied to oil market dynamics.

Consensus

Buy

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

Suncor,SU

BUY

Exxon Mobil (XOM)? Near-term, he's cautious about the energy sector. XOM has a broad base of assets and pays a high 8% dividend, but is underperforming the S&P. XOM has been struggling as a stock. He prefers a company outperforming peers, such as CNQ. CNQ pays a 6.8% dividend. It's had rising relative strength since the market bottomed, from $6.50 to $8.50 today. CNQ has made most of the investments they need for coming years, so CNQ has become a cash-flow vehicle.

DON'T BUY

He does not consider energy producers to be infrastructure plays as they are exposed to commodity price trends. He prefers to own the midstream businesses.

DON'T BUY

We are past the 'best-before' date and core investments in energy are going to be less and less for institutions and individual investors. You want to wait and see what a second COVID wave will look like as we get into the flu season. The futures curve points back to $50 in 2027. There will be challenges in the sector. He does not feel it is investible.

COMMENT

It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.

DON'T BUY

Did the Saudis buy into Suncor and CNQ? He believes this is true, that a large Canadian pension fund sold these stocks to the Saudis. Can't comment on the stocks themselves; anything oil and gas been difficult. This industry can't catch a break. Oil prices can't trade at these prices for long, and a second wave will hurt these stocks more.

WATCH

He owns no producers in Canada, nor the US. Near term contracts on oil have moved substantially. Longer term they have not moved. This is a mid-term trade. There will be a lot more volatility in the space. We have to get through a lot of inventory before fundamentals will change on oil.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Balance sheet safe? Their debt increased to $19.9 billion by end-March and equity is $34 billion. He feels the balance sheet is safe, but it is very levered to oil prices. As he thinks WTI could drop below $20 again soon on rising global inventory, he would be cautious. They have not cut the dividend, but have not taken any impairments on reserves just yet. He thinks this may cause some concern about the dividend longevity. Don't chase it, wait for a lower price.

DON'T BUY

Phase I was the valley of death, when oil prices went to single digits. Now in Phase II, oil prices have recovered and the market is now waiting to see what happens to oil demand and how quickly it recovers. He holds 12 names, 8 of them oil producers. He would rather own a smaller cap producer. CNQ has tough competition on its cash flow to keep paying the dividend (he was surprised they didn't cut the dividend). He thinks when a buyer enters on a small cap stock, it can turn higher more aggressively.

COMMENT

A great company, one of Canada's best oil companies with a super balance sheet. But CNQ couldn't do anything during the recent oil war. What could they do? They can't control the price of oil. This will be a consolidator over time. Smaller energy companies won't make it through. Oil is a tough sector with a murky future. Will oil return to $50 or $60? Oil companies have to wait for the oil price to rise.

COMMENT

The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now. He would prefer to own small cap names with good hedge books, if you select the right ones he thinks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

All oil has been decimated. Shocking. But these stocks can bounce nicely on optimistic day. They have free cash flow to service their debt. Don't chase it today, but nibble under $12 and hold it for long term. They have a great suite of assets and they will pay down their debt. Down the road, expect buybacks and acquisitions.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 18/19, Down 54%) Everything went well until the Saudi/Russia conflict. He is not buying oils at this point.

BUY

He owns CNQ instead of Suncor. These two are the ones you want to own with the volatility in the oil market. They both have the ability to manage through this and have a chance to buy a bunch of assets. The smaller caps are just fighting to live another day. Risk that oil can go lower.

COMMENT

Energy stocks? Right now stick to the large, liquid energy stocks. There is growing concern of counter-party credit exposure within the mid-stream and pipeline space. He recommends ENB-T and TRP-T for pipelines and SU-T and CNQ-T for producers, if you want to own any energy stocks. SU-T yield is 7.2%, while CNQ-T is 8.4%. CNQ-T is probably still showing positive cash flow, even at these oil price levels. You may still lose money, but it will be much less than a smaller player.

COMMENT

Valuation is getting more expensive, payout ratio is going higher, balance sheet is getting worse. Only buy if you think oil is going higher, and then you'll be fine.

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