Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now. He would prefer to own small cap names with good hedge books, if you select the right ones he thinks.

He owns CNQ instead of Suncor. These two are the ones you want to own with the volatility in the oil market. They both have the ability to manage through this and have a chance to buy a bunch of assets. The smaller caps are just fighting to live another day. Risk that oil can go lower.

Energy stocks? Right now stick to the large, liquid energy stocks. There is growing concern of counter-party credit exposure within the mid-stream and pipeline space. He recommends ENB-T and TRP-T for pipelines and SU-T and CNQ-T for producers, if you want to own any energy stocks. SU-T yield is 7.2%, while CNQ-T is 8.4%. CNQ-T is probably still showing positive cash flow, even at these oil price levels. You may still lose money, but it will be much less than a smaller player.

Suncor is a good buy, but so is CNQ, he thinks. Both have yields of 5.6% today.

Suncor will be a survivor of this energy down turn, but only wants to own one oil sands producer. He prefers CNQ. Suncor has benefited from their refinery assets, but that value uplift is pretty much played out.

It's a good hold for the longterm. It could be a good time to start looking into this. He would watch it closely. He thinks there will be production moving back to NA due to the coronavirus. He's looking for an entry point.