TSE:CNQ

Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

64.93
-1.85 (2.77%)
as of Aug 4, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
1402 watching
0
Investor Insights
star iconAug 4, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 97 opinions in the last 12 months.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has received mixed reviews from various experts. Many praise its strong management, stable cash flow, and consistent dividend growth, highlighting it as a reliable long-term investment in the energy sector. However, there are concerns regarding the cyclical nature of oil prices, with several analysts expressing caution about the long-term outlook for crude oil and suggesting potential headwinds from increased EV adoption and regulatory challenges. While short-term volatility is acknowledged, many experts believe CNQ's financial strength and diverse asset base position it well for the future. Overall, it is frequently noted as a solid choice for those looking to invest in the Canadian energy market, with a notable emphasis on the importance of oil price stability for CNQ's performance.

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Consensus
Hold
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Valuation
Fair Value
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Similar
Suncor,SU
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 19/19, Down 34%) The future for crude oil and natural gas is reasonably bright. We must replace coal and help supplement renewables. The company and management team has been outstanding and the dividend has been stable.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 04/19, Down 17%) Sold it. He didn't foresee the pandemic or the OPEC-Russia price war of April. They make crude in western Canada and crude prices have been killed.
BUY

Suncor vs. CNQ Both great Canadian energy stocks. He has owned Suncor and currently owns CNQ as his only energy stock. CNQ maintained its dividend throughout the lockdown, while he believes Suncor lowered theirs to protect their balance sheet. He likes CNQ in energy---you still get a nice yield. Suncor and CNQ will do well long term. Suncor will do well if the energy space improves. He owns 3.5-4% energy on the low side, but you don't want to own too much or too little energy. About two years ago, SU's refining assets were doing really well and got a premium valuations, so maybe that's why the stock has unwound recently.

WAIT

Suncor and CNQ SU cut their dividend. It is a bellwether energy stock. Refining margins are tough which hurts SU. He owns CNQ instead; it didn't cut its dividend. SU stock is okay now with oil prices in the low-$40s, but could weaked in the fall. He's not adding his energy exposure. The bigger picture is: how much oil do you want in your portfolio. He owns CNQ and recommends that in the mid-$20s. Oil offers decent risk/reward given base demand, but wait till the fall to see if demand declines due to a COVID uptick. Oil depends on whether shale oil receives capital support and shale decline has been the game-changer in the last few months. Overall, SU is fine, but if you're switching into CNQ, now's the time to do it.

COMMENT

She owns no oil names and won't re-enter it. But CNQ would be one of the top names if she does return to oil. They just bought Painted Pony, so they can afford to buy assets at cyclical lows like now. They expand opportunistically.

WEAK BUY
There was a fear that Q2 results were going to be bad. In his opinion, Q2 is irrelevant. Outlook for next year is positive. He thinks there are better opportunities but it is a good name too.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 07/19, Down 19%) Sold it last March. CNQ didn't work out, simple as that. The hit on oil demand by COVID and the Saudi-Russia spat triggered his sell. The pipeline shortage was another factor. CNQ has recovered a bit though.
BUY

Exxon Mobil (XOM)? Near-term, he's cautious about the energy sector. XOM has a broad base of assets and pays a high 8% dividend, but is underperforming the S&P. XOM has been struggling as a stock. He prefers a company outperforming peers, such as CNQ. CNQ pays a 6.8% dividend. It's had rising relative strength since the market bottomed, from $6.50 to $8.50 today. CNQ has made most of the investments they need for coming years, so CNQ has become a cash-flow vehicle.

DON'T BUY
He does not consider energy producers to be infrastructure plays as they are exposed to commodity price trends. He prefers to own the midstream businesses.
DON'T BUY
We are past the 'best-before' date and core investments in energy are going to be less and less for institutions and individual investors. You want to wait and see what a second COVID wave will look like as we get into the flu season. The futures curve points back to $50 in 2027. There will be challenges in the sector. He does not feel it is investible.
COMMENT
It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
DON'T BUY
Did the Saudis buy into Suncor and CNQ? He believes this is true, that a large Canadian pension fund sold these stocks to the Saudis. Can't comment on the stocks themselves; anything oil and gas been difficult. This industry can't catch a break. Oil prices can't trade at these prices for long, and a second wave will hurt these stocks more.
WATCH
He owns no producers in Canada, nor the US. Near term contracts on oil have moved substantially. Longer term they have not moved. This is a mid-term trade. There will be a lot more volatility in the space. We have to get through a lot of inventory before fundamentals will change on oil.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Balance sheet safe? Their debt increased to $19.9 billion by end-March and equity is $34 billion. He feels the balance sheet is safe, but it is very levered to oil prices. As he thinks WTI could drop below $20 again soon on rising global inventory, he would be cautious. They have not cut the dividend, but have not taken any impairments on reserves just yet. He thinks this may cause some concern about the dividend longevity. Don't chase it, wait for a lower price.
DON'T BUY
Phase I was the valley of death, when oil prices went to single digits. Now in Phase II, oil prices have recovered and the market is now waiting to see what happens to oil demand and how quickly it recovers. He holds 12 names, 8 of them oil producers. He would rather own a smaller cap producer. CNQ has tough competition on its cash flow to keep paying the dividend (he was surprised they didn't cut the dividend). He thinks when a buyer enters on a small cap stock, it can turn higher more aggressively.
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