TSE:CNQ

Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

78.30
+1.25 (1.62%)
as of Oct 30, 2026, 7:07:43 pm Market Open.
1410 watching
0
COMMENT

This was another question on which company she prefers.. They are both doing well. Her company owns CNQ which has a very good, conservative management team and good assets. It buys assets at rock bottom prices and has a good mix. They can now pay back 100% of free cash flow to investors. WCP is light oil which has a higher decline rate but the management team is doing well making the wells last longer.

BUY

Loves management team. 15% compounder going back 20+ years. Increases dividend every single year. Does he know where oil prices are going? No. Buy it here? Yes. Special dividend? Only if oil goes to $90-95 and stays; otherwise, will just maintain dividend and buy back stock.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 01/23, Up 37%)

They've reduced debt so much so now they return 100% of cash to shareholders. Great assets and managers. Buybacks can be sporadic, though. The dividend absorbs the volatility in oil prices.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Excellent company - would wait to buy around $90. Fully valued at current share price. Strong management team with excellent assets. Best company in the sector. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 26/24, Up 19%)

He's very heavy in resources. They'll slow down, but he likes them for the long run too.

BUY

Excellent company. One of top ten holdings. Likely to have 20% dividend growth going forward. Believes energy sector at the beginnings of a bullish trend. Expecting further growth for the company going forward. Would recommend holding for 5-10 years. Excellent long term investment. Price target = $113. Very strong management team. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Upcoming stock split won't affect performance of business. Optics can affect interest from retail investors, but overall - no difference. Business is very strong overall - with excellent management team. Major asset base. Does not own shares right now. Largest oil producer in Canada. ~1.5% of global oil produced by company. Excellent balance sheet with steady dividend growth. Founder has a lot of skin in the game (~2% or $2 Billion). 

WEAK BUY

He doesn't own any exploration & production companies, but follows the space. If he were to invest, this would be his top choice. Shareholder friendly, very good assets.

PARTIAL SELL

There's great demand for heavy oil due to OPEC's cuts and Mexico will export less. A phenomenal company. Excellent managers who own a lot of shares. It trades near fair value, so actually sell some shares. This will become a source of funds.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

No qualms with buying. Kryptonite to unwind rally would be a reversal in price of oil. Oil is at a 52-week high, and this stock tends to trade in lockstep with it. Above-peer-quality assets, management, capital allocation, return to shareholders, and financial strength. If own, hold. If not, and you believe in the oil rally, buy on dip. Quality compounder.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Good management, executes incredibly well. Shareholder-friendly moves. Ability to make acquisitions in tough times. Oil can creep up from here. Look for a pullback, or buy 1/2 a position now and the rest later. Very stable. Yield close to 4%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 29/24, Up 27%)

A Top 10 holding. Suits all portfolios. Close to a 5% dividend, growing at north of 20%. Committed to returning all free cashflow to investors. High quality, very well managed. If he'd been allowed, he'd have used it as a Top Pick again today.

BUY

Oil was underpriced, but geopolitical risk and a warmer economy have helped raise prices. Oil is breaking out. CNQ already has. You need energy in your portfolio.

COMMENT

The question was on his preference re Canadian Natural Resources or TC Energy. TRP has a lot of debt and it's hard to build a pipeline. CNQ has driven down debt. It will sit at a lower level of around $10 billion and return excess money to shareholders.

DON'T BUY
Sell CPX to buy CNQ?

Two different companies. CPX is a utility, with better income distribution and lower growth. CNQ has a nice dividend, but with better growth. What are you looking for? For income, pick CPX. For growth, pick CNQ.

At current levels, he'd stick with CPX for the dividend and potential upside. More potential for upside growth, less potential for downside risk.

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