Celestica Inc (CLS.TO)

Broke trend, rallied, but made a lower high. Now making a lower low. He has a very low weight in tech, about 12%; whereas the S&P is about 28-29%. So many other things to do that are less crowded than tech. Technical setup not great; background for tech not as good as it was.

12-month price target of $79, still a bit of room. On the chart, you can see the highs that go back to the early summer. Buy 1/3 here around $68, another at just under $64 where there seems to be some support, and the final 1/3 at just over $60. Put in a stop around $54-55.

Concentration risk, but its manufacturing and platform solutions are state of the art. Client base includes hyperscalers and service providers. Extremely well run.

Wished he bought it a year ago. Have very low margins, but now benefit from supplying equipment to hyperscalers. They hugely depend on one client, though, in their AI-related, data centre business. Can be very volatile. Careful. Take profits if you've made money here. 

Pulled back in July, rallied to a lower high, now has pulled back to just above the rising 200-day MA. Price pattern is a lot like big tech. Hold, but don't add. If you own it, use the 200-day as a line in the sand. Watch those lows from July. Be cautious. If it breaks $60, need to have a hard discussion.

Like Broadcom, delivers AI communications equipment, which has driven its rally. He's bullish the AI build-out long-term, and Celestica will benefit. You can start building a position in this.

It has been in an uptrend and has pulled back. If the trend is confirmed then buy. .

This decline is temporary, though could last longer if the US Fed announces it will hold rates now and in September (he believes they won't). CLS is a core position, so he will keep adding to it.

With this type of stock, he asks himself whether it's just not better to own NVDA? CLS is benefiting today from data centre buildout and relationship with GOOG (an open secret). Those dynamics don't make them the best position in the value chain relative to NVDA and other players.

It's the end of the bullwhip effect. NVDA is the real, bleeding-edge innovator in the ecosystem. Sell CLS, and roll the gains into NVDA.

Come off quite a bit today to just under $74. Price target 12 months out is $79. Tremendous respect of clients. Buy a third here at $74, another at $71-72, and the final third under $70.

The chart is going straight up. They're moving from contract producers of electronics for others to consulting and apps. Earnings forecast is rising. The question is how long this will go. The last time the chart did this was in 2000. If it returns to its 2000 level, shares could double. He wouldn't sell now.

It has done very well and analysts are still trying to catch up with the stock price. Micron was also mentioned as a good AI player. Data storage has to go up 100 fold.

When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.

Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.

CLS is nearing a 7% position in our growth model portfolio, and with other names also running higher in the model portfolio, its position size can shrink. We continue to like its momentum and our strategy has been to let it run so far. Forward growth is still expected to be high due to demand from the hyperscalers, and we see this demand lasting for another 12-18 months or so, at least. Position sizing is personal, but for now we have let it run its course in the model portfolio. 
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Nice run. An AI play on data centres. Very aligned on spending of hyper-scalers like AMZN, MSFT and GOOG. Margins quite low, around 5%. But getting volume on very strong demand. Momentum stock. 

Future growth and success predicated on capex spending beyond 2024, which hasn't been announced. Be cautious. Once growth rate starts to turn, stock will pull back.

A good one, he's looking at it. In the AI arena you want to "own the network", not the people who make the bits and pieces. As a contract manufacturer, 16x is high. Demand looks to be strong and persistent, which may reduce its cyclicality.