Cascades Inc (CAS.TO)

All forestry stocks are cyclical especially pulp and paper. If you stick with CAS and forestry, then diversify your portfolio instead to something less cyclical, at least non-paper stocks but are in forestry if you want to stay in this space.

This is a big player in recycle paper products and tissue. This is, historically, a very well run company. It is a cyclical business. They have a manageable level of debt, but a cyclical business should have a stronger balance sheet. They are currently suffering from tissue prices and not getting enough from recycled products, so they are facing margin pressure. He likes the company but there are better places to invest.

(Past Top Pick, July 20, 2018, Up 9%) This company really understands renewables such asin their water use and packaging (100% recyclable material). He's excited with them moving into the food packaging industry. Cascades'
packaging is biodgradable.

This company has two parts: Containerboard and tissue. Both are cyclical businesses. Containerboard depends on economic activity: the more activity, the more boxes are needed. That industry is looking better, partially because of what is happening in the wood industry. In contrast, there is overcapacity of tissue in North America. Buying Cascades now buys tissue while it is down and out and buys containerboard as it’s looking better. This is on his radar, but he’s not ready to buy it yet. He doesn’t recommend against starting a small position it it now, though he is not doing so.

Loves this company. A paper company that doesn’t cut down any trees. Use 100% recycled paper. Look to identify efficiencies throughout the entire process. More a corporate than a consumer play. Facilities have begun using sustainability as credibility. Yield is 1.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.06.)

He has been watching this closely. It trades below book value, which has historically been a good buy signal. They have had some operational issues, but their input costs have been going down which should overall improve margins. Container board sales have not been as strong as hoped. The tissue industry is also somewhat oversupplied right now. Buying under $12 is a good area, where he thinks it would go back to $15 to $18.

He doesn't like stocks trading at 52-week lows. At some point, you have to cut this stock out or close your eyes and wait for a recovery.

(A Top Pick February 15, 2017. Down 8%). He still really likes this company and it is still one of his largest positions. The fundamentals are about as strong as they have ever been.

He is particularly interested in their containerboard business, which is the main input into boxes (for example the kind of boxes used by Amazon). They are benefitting strongly from the growth in e-commerce. Limited new supply of containerboard. The industry is operating at 97% of capacity. Many price increases are going through. They use a lot of recycled fiber for inputs to containerboard and other paper and recycled fiber is going down in price while containerboard is going up in price. (Analysts’ price target is 18.25$)

This company makes recycling products. Online purchasing is leading to higher needs for cardboard and recycling. This is still a little expensive, but would buy it at lower levels.

He has a small short position. It is not a high conviction short, but does not have a strong price momentum.

Had a big miss last quarter, largely on the back of their tissue exposure, so this is a pretty opportune time to be buying. The free cash flow is in the neighbourhood of 15%. If there was an upswing in the tissue space, this would benefit, but is not something he is holding his breath for.

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 6%. Up 6%.) The 3^rd quarter was not good. Owning down here is going to end up looking very good a year from now.

He doesn’t follow this closely, but does follow the space. Hurricanes created disruptions on resin supply for all these packaging companies. Prices have been rising and eating into the margins. These are generally lower margin companies, so it is a big deal when you start seeing margins erode. They have the ability to pass these increases on to the customer, but that won’t happen until down the road. There may be a few quarters of lower results than what you expect. When you get past 2 quarters, you should be fine with these companies. This company is okay, but he prefers CCL Industries (CCL.B-T).

(A Top Pick March 2/17. Up 32.26%.) He wanted to take advantage of the trend of above average growth and shipping activity. The period of seasonal strength is between mid-March and late May, which gives about an average of about 11.6% about 65% for the past 20 years. This is still positive and still trending higher.