Stock Opinions by James Hodgins - Stockchase Experts
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James Hodgins @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2010

Chief Investment Officer at Curvature Hedge Strategies

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Stock Opinions by James Hodgins - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 14, 2019

2017 saw the lowest volatility and nowadays it is mean-reverting. We had 10 years of very low interest rates. When the central banks take away this liquidity, that results in a lot of volatility. Historically, when central banks pause (or reverse rates) it's scary, and central banks are doing that now. When the cycle turns (which he believes is happening now), who will buy the riskier assets out there? This worries him, referring to the October 2018 sell-off. He feels the credit cycle has tipped over, and in a year from now there'll likely be a Canadian recession, and within two years a global one. He expects more downgrades coming in the next earnings season. It's not the time to panic-sell, but when you see a rally in the market, lighten up your stocks.
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2017 saw the lowest volatility and nowadays it is mean-reverting. We had 10 years of very low interest rates. When the central banks take away this liquidity, that results in a lot of volatility. Historically, when central banks pause (or reverse rates) it's scary, and central banks are doing that now. When the cycle turns (which he believes is happening now), who will buy the riskier assets out there? This worries him, referring to the October 2018 sell-off. He feels the credit cycle has tipped over, and in a year from now there'll likely be a Canadian recession, and within two years a global one. He expects more downgrades coming in the next earnings season. It's not the time to panic-sell, but when you see a rally in the market, lighten up your stocks.
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Nutrien Ltd.(NTR-T) 

January 14, 2019

The leading way way to play phosphates and potash in North America. He likes NTR, but because he's a mid-cap manager (and NTR is large cap) he prefers IFOS-X in this space within this cycle.
agriculture
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The leading way way to play phosphates and potash in North America. He likes NTR, but because he's a mid-cap manager (and NTR is large cap) he prefers IFOS-X in this space within this cycle.
agriculture
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$65.920
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
It looks cheap and the balance sheet is not distressed. He likes it here. The risk/reward is good. They have quality crude and get better pricing than its Alberta peers.
oil/gas
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It looks cheap and the balance sheet is not distressed. He likes it here. The risk/reward is good. They have quality crude and get better pricing than its Alberta peers.
oil/gas
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$4.500
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Parex Resources Inc.(PXT-T) 

January 14, 2019

Loves it. One of his biggest holdings. It got hammered, but actually holds net cash and generates $4+/share. Incredibly cheap. They get Brent Oil pricing, another upside. It'll go back to mid-$20's.
oil/gas
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Loves it. One of his biggest holdings. It got hammered, but actually holds net cash and generates $4+/share. Incredibly cheap. They get Brent Oil pricing, another upside. It'll go back to mid-$20's.
oil/gas
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$18.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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SHORT
Aurora Cannabis(ACB-T) 

January 14, 2019

Not his favourite cannabis stock. They've diluted shares and are buying another company, which tells him that they're buying with stocks, not cash, which tells him that management believes their company is overvalued. ACB is very high compared to its peers. He's shorting it.
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Not his favourite cannabis stock. They've diluted shares and are buying another company, which tells him that they're buying with stocks, not cash, which tells him that management believes their company is overvalued. ACB is very high compared to its peers. He's shorting it.
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$9.000
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
TeraGo Inc.(TGO-T) 

January 14, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Up 97%) They smartly bought some spectrum rights a few years ago, and now they're on the fringe of the 5G spectrum. So the value of their spectrum rights will be realized later this year. He took profits, and would be lightening up on this now as the stock does well.
Telecommunications
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(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Up 97%) They smartly bought some spectrum rights a few years ago, and now they're on the fringe of the 5G spectrum. So the value of their spectrum rights will be realized later this year. He took profits, and would be lightening up on this now as the stock does well.
Telecommunications
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$11.010
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 30%) Also a top pick, so he'll comment there.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 30%) Also a top pick, so he'll comment there.
oil/gas
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$1.120
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Cipher Pharmeuticals(CPH-T) 

January 14, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 54%) He slightly reduced his position, but still holds it. They got into a business agreement with Sun Pharma, a bigger company, that was distributing one of the biggest drugs. They did a big promotion last year and the stock did very well, but they stopped promoting it. The inventory built up and their orders to Cipher dwindled to almost nothing. CPH stock got punished. They've since solved it with a long-term supply agreement. Also, they have two new drugs approved in 2018 with at least three more in 2019. The founder just bought a bunch of shares, which is a good sign.
Healthcare
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(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 54%) He slightly reduced his position, but still holds it. They got into a business agreement with Sun Pharma, a bigger company, that was distributing one of the biggest drugs. They did a big promotion last year and the stock did very well, but they stopped promoting it. The inventory built up and their orders to Cipher dwindled to almost nothing. CPH stock got punished. They've since solved it with a long-term supply agreement. Also, they have two new drugs approved in 2018 with at least three more in 2019. The founder just bought a bunch of shares, which is a good sign.
Healthcare
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$1.890
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Fortis Inc.(FTS-T) 

January 14, 2019

It'll do well in the market he forecasts--a difficult one, and investors will bid up stable companies like Fortis that don't depend on cyclicality. OPne of his biggest holdings.
electrical utilities
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It'll do well in the market he forecasts--a difficult one, and investors will bid up stable companies like Fortis that don't depend on cyclicality. OPne of his biggest holdings.
electrical utilities
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$45.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Alcanna(CLIQ-T) 

January 14, 2019

The dividend isn't safe given company turmoil. They're converting Alberta liquor stores into cannabis retail, partnering with Aurora. This is a speculative play and a logistical challenge. It's difficult to run cannabis retail when you have no product to sell. The upside is that Aurora could just vertically integrate and own the entire channel.
merchandising/lodging
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The dividend isn't safe given company turmoil. They're converting Alberta liquor stores into cannabis retail, partnering with Aurora. This is a speculative play and a logistical challenge. It's difficult to run cannabis retail when you have no product to sell. The upside is that Aurora could just vertically integrate and own the entire channel.
merchandising/lodging
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$4.700
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Precious metals will be a safe sector in the coming cycle (economic weakness). SIL has one of highest-grade silver developments in the world, and a prime takeover candidate.
precious metals
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Precious metals will be a safe sector in the coming cycle (economic weakness). SIL has one of highest-grade silver developments in the world, and a prime takeover candidate.
precious metals
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$3.960
Owned Owned
Yes

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Trevali Mining Corp(TV-T) 

January 14, 2019

Not highly valued becasue they mine low-grade (mostly zinc) assets. That said, he recently picked up some of TV-T as bargain-basement shopping and expecting a bounce. There's upside here though with some risk. The balance sheet is good without net debt, but the assets are not the best. It's a trade. If the US-China trade deal happens, all base metals will pop 10-15% in a single day.
Mining
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Not highly valued becasue they mine low-grade (mostly zinc) assets. That said, he recently picked up some of TV-T as bargain-basement shopping and expecting a bounce. There's upside here though with some risk. The balance sheet is good without net debt, but the assets are not the best. It's a trade. If the US-China trade deal happens, all base metals will pop 10-15% in a single day.
Mining
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$0.390
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
MEG Energy Corp(MEG-T) 

January 14, 2019

Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
oil/gas
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Taking a counter-cyclical view, Husky is investing upstream. His best guess is that the Husky closes. It's unlikely there'll be a white knight for MEG.
oil/gas
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James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$8.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Spot Coffee(SPP-X) 

January 14, 2019

A micro-cap. He holds debt securities and have been collecting those coupons. SPP is interesting, but highly speculative. They run little coffee shops. The coffee and food are really good. He wouldn't buy it for that reason, but it's okay in a portfolio.
merchandising/lodging
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A micro-cap. He holds debt securities and have been collecting those coupons. SPP is interesting, but highly speculative. They run little coffee shops. The coffee and food are really good. He wouldn't buy it for that reason, but it's okay in a portfolio.
merchandising/lodging
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$0.120
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Magellan Aerospa(MAL-T) 

January 14, 2019

Not his favourite in this space, though he follows it. because it's a Canadian company selling into U.S. aerospace, it could suffer American protectionism. He prefers HRX, though they're both good companies.
transportation equip & components
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Not his favourite in this space, though he follows it. because it's a Canadian company selling into U.S. aerospace, it could suffer American protectionism. He prefers HRX, though they're both good companies.
transportation equip & components
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
James Hodgins

Chief Inve, Curvature Hedge Stra...

Price Price
$15.460
Owned Owned
Unknown

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