Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

One of the better energy companies. It is heavy oil, but is pumpable heavy oil, and the Canadian Western select price has done quite well. They also have a significant holding in the Eagleford Texas shales, which could be back in the limelight at $50+. A well-managed company. Still a risky situation.

Thinks this is worth a fair bit and can easily get to $9-$10 based on the direction of oil. Although she owns, it is not a core holding simply because of the risk. Has a lot of debt. She loves the assets and thinks the team is very strong.

You are buying leveraged oil. If you think oil is going to go up in price, then this is a great play. If you think oil will go down in price, not a great idea. It has heavy oil composition and large debt. We are up to the resistance point right now. The seasonal period ends May 9^th. Sell on strength.

He was Short this recently. Has a lot of debt. There is no imminent danger of them breaking their covenants. A good operating team and have some good assets in the Eagleford which are performing very well. Heavy oil assets at these prices do not make money. Thinks it is vulnerable to a correction. Once oil goes over $50, they start making money, and investors will start to get pretty excited about it.

Historically this company has been very well liked. It is so volatile these days with what we have seen in oil and gas. Overall this name is perking up. Doesn’t think fundamentally this company is challenged, it is just the market.

(Market Call Minute) It could be a phenomenal return if oil normalizes at $55, but if it goes back to the $30s it will be tough.

This is one of those leveraged opportunities. If the price of oil was $70-$80, their stock could go a long way. BV is $11.46, so they are trading significantly below BV. It has had a very nice bounce from the lows. The big issue is their debt of $1.6 billion. Equity is $2.4 billion. Last year they produced 85,000 BOE’s a day. 2016 is going to be about 15%-17% less. The amount they have in the hedges is minuscule. Debt is a problem and their operating costs are a bit too high. If you own, he would recommend selling.

This stock has been devastated. It is purely leveraged to Alberta. Oil will be lower for longer.

He just started to pick some up today. Chart shows a little bit of support in early April. Chart also shows a big base forming in the last 4-5 months.

Canadian energy is really starting to get into gear. The seasonal period is from the end of January through until the middle of June. Technically the chart is showing that it is starting to get some support and is starting to go higher.

99.9% of investors have experienced that the risk/reward was not compelling, but the stocks have rallied well. He is not convinced there will be an epic pullback in oils because of the money on the sidelines waiting for a pullback. BTE-T has been holding up and he will make it a 10% holding in his fund. Stick with it, or buy it on weakness.

(Market Call Minute.) One of the torquiest names in oil. If oil prices go up, this name will react quite favourably.

The price of oil softens between now and August. Companies are trying to play catch up, dealing with cost overruns. It has a CAA1 credit rating. It is well down there.

(Market Call Minute.) Great company, but they took on too much leverage at the worst possible time. They have debt/cash flow at 7.4% 2016 estimates. If you don’t have oil going higher fast, this is going to be a tough one.

If you think oil has bottomed and that we are going to go higher, this is a good company, and he thinks you will make money. You are going to see this push up over the $5 range and into the high single digits, and maybe $10. However, it has had a heck of a ride and is very volatile. If you lose a little bit of money on the crude, you are going to see a disproportionate draw down on this name. Fundamentally it is fine.