Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

Given that they don’t have to pay a dividend any more, free cash flow would come down to maintenance capital to maintain flat production levels. His guess is that it would be in the mid-$40, because their heavy oil required a price of around $33-$34 for about half the production, and the remaining half is liquids rich gas plus light oil. If you own, consider trimming.

(Market Call Minute.) This had a huge move, and has reached his fundamental target.

One of the better energy companies. It is heavy oil, but is pumpable heavy oil, and the Canadian Western select price has done quite well. They also have a significant holding in the Eagleford Texas shales, which could be back in the limelight at $50+. A well-managed company. Still a risky situation.

Thinks this is worth a fair bit and can easily get to $9-$10 based on the direction of oil. Although she owns, it is not a core holding simply because of the risk. Has a lot of debt. She loves the assets and thinks the team is very strong.

You are buying leveraged oil. If you think oil is going to go up in price, then this is a great play. If you think oil will go down in price, not a great idea. It has heavy oil composition and large debt. We are up to the resistance point right now. The seasonal period ends May 9^th. Sell on strength.

He was Short this recently. Has a lot of debt. There is no imminent danger of them breaking their covenants. A good operating team and have some good assets in the Eagleford which are performing very well. Heavy oil assets at these prices do not make money. Thinks it is vulnerable to a correction. Once oil goes over $50, they start making money, and investors will start to get pretty excited about it.

Historically this company has been very well liked. It is so volatile these days with what we have seen in oil and gas. Overall this name is perking up. Doesn’t think fundamentally this company is challenged, it is just the market.

(Market Call Minute) It could be a phenomenal return if oil normalizes at $55, but if it goes back to the $30s it will be tough.

This is one of those leveraged opportunities. If the price of oil was $70-$80, their stock could go a long way. BV is $11.46, so they are trading significantly below BV. It has had a very nice bounce from the lows. The big issue is their debt of $1.6 billion. Equity is $2.4 billion. Last year they produced 85,000 BOE’s a day. 2016 is going to be about 15%-17% less. The amount they have in the hedges is minuscule. Debt is a problem and their operating costs are a bit too high. If you own, he would recommend selling.

This stock has been devastated. It is purely leveraged to Alberta. Oil will be lower for longer.

He just started to pick some up today. Chart shows a little bit of support in early April. Chart also shows a big base forming in the last 4-5 months.

Canadian energy is really starting to get into gear. The seasonal period is from the end of January through until the middle of June. Technically the chart is showing that it is starting to get some support and is starting to go higher.

99.9% of investors have experienced that the risk/reward was not compelling, but the stocks have rallied well. He is not convinced there will be an epic pullback in oils because of the money on the sidelines waiting for a pullback. BTE-T has been holding up and he will make it a 10% holding in his fund. Stick with it, or buy it on weakness.

(Market Call Minute.) One of the torquiest names in oil. If oil prices go up, this name will react quite favourably.

The price of oil softens between now and August. Companies are trying to play catch up, dealing with cost overruns. It has a CAA1 credit rating. It is well down there.