Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

6.59

+0.10 (1.54%)

as of Oct 2, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

730 watching

DON'T BUY

This is a Canadian energy company. They made an acquisition in the US unfortunately at the top of the cycle. He does not own highly levered oil and gas companies. There are others that are much more attractive. He prefers clean balance sheets.

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DON'T BUY

In 2015, it traded at $40. At $2 today, he doesn't know what to say about BTE. Its balance sheet is okay, but its intrinsic value is plunging to the dumpster; its balance sheet has been in a four-year decline. He can't say to abandon ship though he can see the stock going lower. The oil patch in general: at least 20 Canadian oil stocks are in the same boat. Either there will be some bankruptcies or the stocks are so cheap we can get one heck of a rally, rising 100-200% quickly.

TOP PICK

Has been massively under performing the move on WTI. If you believe $60 WTI, this is a $4 share price, he thinks. You are paying for their existing production, not including future growth or value for their Eagleford assets. They are trading like a bankrupt company. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $3.77)

DON'T BUY

Light oil companies will benefit more from an advance in oil price to $70+ this year. He is concerned, though about the balance sheet here and would pass on it. In a couple of years, all these stocks will go up, however. There are other bargains out there, especially natural gas picks.

RISKY

Too much debt, making acqusitions, and need to fix the balance sheet. The current $2.50 price is too low, though. They are oil-levered, so if oil recovers, you can make a lot of money with BTE. He predicts oil going to $50-60.

WEAK BUY

He would have thought the bottom was higher than this. They did some great acquisitions recently and are in much better shape balance sheet wise. It is a better company than the market gives it credit for. You need crude to get out of the $45 range.

DON'T BUY

Oil forecast? Used to have a great a balance sheet then levered up at the wrong time to make an acquisition around 2014. It takes a long time to unwind. Some say you can get great torque on BTE, because an upside in oil means an upside in earnings, but it's not worth the risk. Oil price is a little cheap now, so you can dip a toe into oil now. But look for good balance sheets in a company. It's rough to see the WCS differential so wide, but the reason is the lack of pipelines. Things can't get worse, but it can go away as soon as you start building pipelines. Also, demand growth in oil is okay actually.

COMMENT

World oil demand is still growing, so he's not concerned about the future of oil. That said, he'd own the lower-cost oil companies. BTE is well-run, but at the whims of the oil price. If that price is flat in coming years, look at other oil companies.

TOP PICK

This offers great leverage to higher oil prices and tighter heavy oil differentials.. Over 37% of their cash flow comes from the Eagleford and have enormous exposure to the Duvernay. The value of this asset is in excess of the share price. It has had enormous tax loss selling recently, so it has great upside. At $60 WTI prices, he gets about a $4 share price. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $5.09)

BUY

As long as you believe that energy prices have to trade at some level above marginal cost globally, this company is a good purchase here. Well funded. Trading at 3 times normalized earnings. Everybody hates it. International investors are not coming to Canada as long as they don't see we can work as a country and sell our product and find more of it.

COMMENT

The energy sector has had its problems, including Baytex. They have very good properties, but margins are thin given the oil price. For energy as a whole, you'll have to wait a long time to find value.

HOLD

Real problem with energy and its stocks is that the psychology is totally negative. Until we see the horizon clear with oil price and supply, be very cautious about putting money in. If you hold it, you can continue to do so. (Analysts’ price target is $5.63)

TOP PICK

It's the poster child of hate for Canadian energy stocks. Balance sheet is decent now after being stretched for a long time. This is a screaming buy. They could buyback their own shares. This is close to a bottom now. (Analysts’ price target is $5.63)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 8%) This is about the 6.625% 2021 Bond - They have owned it since 2016 when the last oil crisis happened. Since it merged with another company it is a lot less risky. better coverage ratio. Sometimes they prefer to have the bond with an equity-like return.

DON'T BUY

He has a problem with this one. Debt went up from 17 to 1.9 or 88% debt to equity ratio. Third of production is heavy oil. The CEO does not own enough shares in the company.

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Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)