
TSE:BNP
This is about 67% gas and he does not really want to invest in companies that are overly weighted to gas. Balance sheet that is a little bit higher than what he is comfortable with. Management team is considered to be one of the best in Calgary. They have a pretty good hedge book in place, so about half of their gas is hedged.
Has been hammered along with a lot of other energy stocks, but this has always been one of the better managed companies in the group. It is proportionately more exposed to natural gas. With the current pricing of energy commodities, you have to ask how safe the dividend is. This management has always been better at executing in the oil/gas area. For people that are looking for more speculation in their portfolio, this might be a small piece of their portfolio because it could have tremendous upside relative to the downside.
If you own, you are best to take your loss and move on to another company. This company has had a few issues. Operations are good, but the commodity price is not working for them and she is very concerned about propane prices right now. Even if they cut their dividend, they face a lot of challenges going forward.
Well-managed. Has a great yield. Mainly gas and is hedged into next year. 40% of next year’s production is hedged off at much higher prices, so the distribution should be relatively safe. However, the gas price hasn’t lifted up much, partly because we lost a big part of our natural gas export market in the US, to the Marcellus drilling. A low cost producer at under $12 BOE. You just have to be patient.
Senior intermediate sized company with high distribution. Debt is over two times, but they have the same CEO from a long time ago and he can steer them through good and bad times. He is condensing the portfolio of properties to leave only the very best ones. Good hedging policy. Some of the better internal rates of returns in the province.
This management deserves a lot of credit. They have made a lot of strides. A checkmark for organic execution that we saw in the last quarter. High production. Unfortunately, $75 WTI and $4 natural gas, their effective payout ratio goes to 154% and debt to cash flow goes to an uncomfortable 3.2%, and you don’t want to be above 3. Their cash flow per share growth falls next year by about 20%. He would wait and watch for crude to stabilize at least.
This has been a tremendous growth story. There is a new management team, which he thinks is very talented and who are doing their best to right side the balance sheet, as they had a little bit too much debt at one point. They stuck with the dividend through thick and thin, but eventually reduced it. He likes the new management team and thinks they are doing the right things. This is one that you could own.
He has a little of this. Feels this one is at risk the longer the oil situation drags out. Wouldn’t add to your position. If we see a rally in oil/gas prices, it might be one that he would look to unload.