NYSE:BHP

BHP Billiton (BHP)

80.51
-1.55 (1.89%)
as of Nov 12, 2026, 9:00:00 pm Market Closed.
128 watching
0
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Yield about 12%, super attractive. Company sees demand falling, as developed markets go through weakness. Dividend will get cut. Don't buy for the dividend. China is a stabilizing force. Not expensive right now. Long term, outlook is super-positive, a winner. Nibble on weakness for a 3-year hold.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 16/21, Up 18%) China's not really fully back online, plus issues around Europe. Will probably go higher. Low balance sheet. Potash in Saskatchewan will add growth. Commodity companies benefit from inflation. Extra cash could be used for acquisitions in existing segments.
DON'T BUY
Diversified miner. Avoid any deep cyclical. Fed tightening is positive for the USD, which doesn't bode well for commodity producers. Look at it if shares sell off and your time horizon is 5+ years. For a 6-12 month timeline, this one doesn't work.
DON'T BUY
Don't buy a mineral and mining company heading into a recession. It looks cheap, but don't.
TOP PICK
Benefits from rising inflation. Best of breed miner. Exposure to potash and China coming back online. Inexpensive at these levels. Technical resistance around $48. Yield is 11.93%. (Analysts’ price target is $65.18)
WAIT
High dividend yield. Iron ore prices were over $200/tonne, but now they're $100, still extremely high. Steel looks particularly weak. Even in a recession, we won't go back to $50, but the yield should normalize closer to 7%. Wait and see, start to dabble in Q4.
WAIT
BHP vs. RIO For commodities as a whole, he's more of a trader, and he's not trading right now. Cyclicality impacts growth trends. Over time, the chart action is pretty horizontal. Both are good companies. Trade, don't put them in the closet and forget about them.
PARTIAL SELL
Don't sell outright, but absolutely look to take some profits. Consider selling 1/3 or 1/2. Look at what's happening across many commodities, such as NTR. Except for gold, share prices have gone parabolic. War in Ukraine has jolted the complex of commodities, though there's still a bit of room to run.
DON'T BUY
Dividend stable? A pure commodity company. Very high yield, dividend not safe. In 2016, cut dividend by 75%. All commodity companies pay you when commodity prices are high, and cut when prices are low. Never expect stability, as earnings are so cyclical.
TOP PICK
Believes economy is in the process of a commodity super cycle. Commodities benefit from rising inflation rates. Shortage of many materials including copper. Very diversified business with interests in many commodities. Wants to go where real profits & dividends are instead of speculating in junior players.
COMMENT
Hold as a bond proxy? He does not think investors should buy stocks as bond proxies. A high dividend yield is one thing, but bonds will not have the volatility that stocks will. You buy bonds for stability of income. High yield stocks will often cut dividends, resulting in loss of income and equity value.
BUY
We've entered a structural bull market for commodities, but they don't go straight higher. China has tried to keep its thumb on commodity prices. Global steel production will continue to expand. Should find a footing around these levels. US infrastructure bill will help. Good entry point for the next 2-3 years, and you should get a solid dividend and total return.
BUY
We may be at the beginning of a fairly meaningful commodity cycle. If you want international exposure, this is the right kind of name. He doesn't invest in deep cyclical plays. Setup globally is for continued economic growth. Financial wherewithal to extract resources. Attractive free cashflow generators.
BUY
The material sectors tend to be highly volatile. Seeing commodity prices firm up. Taking advantage of it. Their corporate policy is to pay out a percentage of earnings and their earnings have been very good. Declared an attractive dividend, but you cannot bank on this dividend going forward. Certainly doing well, strong balance sheet.
TOP PICK
Reducing debt significantly. Potash in Saskatchewan going ahead. Gap in lithium will be addressed with exposure to EVs. Copper and iron ore are all needed for renewables. If you own this long term, you'll do very well. Trading downward. Yield is 13.68%. (Analysts’ price target is $73.03)
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