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Bombardier Inc (B)BBD.B.TOCOMMENTDec 15, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 11, 2026. Market Open.
Aerospace is a great and growing industry. Catalysts for positive change, such as Canadian contract and potential NATO contract. Paid down debt, has become a pure-play business jet leader. Now has a dynamite balance sheet. Strong jet-delivery growth, margins expanding.
New order book grew 43% in past year. Services increased 25% YOY. Will generate $1B in 2026. No dividend.
It has had a very successful turn-around. It sort of downsized in 2020 and focused on business jets. At that time there was too much debt but the balance sheet is much improved now. The price then was around $10 so it has been a 25 bagger in 5 years. Since it is priced much more fully now, he would trim and not add.
Phases 1, 2, and 3 of the business cycle are the expansion phases and they typically last a year. His team believes that last year was phase 1, so now we're in phase 2. This matters because industrials typically do well in phase 2.
Likes it, chart looks great. He'd continue to hold. If it goes up another 1%, you could trim that 1%. If it takes out somewhere in the $240 range (which is a pretty good level of support), that's when he'd trim a bigger portion. A move below $240 indicates that something significant is happening.
Continues to execute. We have this K-shaped economy, and this name is at the top end of the K. Continues to build more business jets and sell more. Newer, faster jets are in demand from top corporate clients. Multiple defense initiatives, such as with Saab. Good work getting balance sheet in order, numbers continue to accelerate. Likes it here.
Pleased with performance. Continues to like. Runup this month due to contract to deliver 50 aircraft. Pure play on private aviation. A generation or half a generation ahead of competitors in medium- and long-range aircraft. It's the best on a range of metrics, and its money-is-no-object customers don't comparison shop. After-market parts and services business. Chance to win defense contracts.
Enjoying a moment in the sun after 20 years under a dark cloud. Most investors haven't yet realized that, so more upside.
Gaining altitude. Technological leadership in medium- and long-range aircraft. Order book looks pretty robust, production slate is full. After-market parts and service provide stable revenue. Airplanes can be repurposed for military use, and Canada's recently upped defense spending commitments.
Long and complex supply chain, and tariffs are still a wild card. So not out of the woods yet. Stock breaking out to fresh all-time highs speaks to its resilience and to worst-case tariff scenario probably not materializing.
Thinks this has finally turned the corner. It is definitely risky. New management continues to deliver on goals and milestones. He believes that the sum of the parts valuation is at $3.75 and that the C series is worth another $.72. He is modelling 30% EBITDA growth 2017-2020, and it is trading at a reasonable valuation of 9.2, versus its peers of 11.6. A good risk/reward story.