BlackBerry (BB.TO)

Quite a bit of good news has already been priced in. Friday morning’s conference call on earnings is going to be very important. Everybody is going to be looking at it for signs of a turnaround. They want to make sure that the “cash bleed” has stopped and maybe the company will be cash flow positive. If this doesn’t turn out well, he expects the stock will drop to the $7.60 US level and will hold there for a while.

You need to see better execution. They are in a difficult situation because competitors are so far ahead of them. Industry is going through some material change and that is why Apple is not doing so well. Maybe BB can come out of this very well. They have to consolidate their enterprise business. They have some good quality software business in their company, if they execute well on those you could see some strength.

It is hard for him to understand their technology and where their technology is going. The most fascinating thing is the number of people who are now buying in. There is now some major, smart money moving in.

Can’t make head or tails of this company. He would not be playing this stock. It’s in the hands of speculators or traders.

Have some big supporters. New CEO is very well respected and has decided to focus on the business client and get out of the hardware business because it is so commoditized. The future is still very cloudy. Still somewhat speculative. She would put her money somewhere else.

Two things have struck them recently. The 1^st is that Mr. Chen has come in to turn it around. The other thing that popped up last week is that they have had a great vote of confidence by the US military. Their security system is so good that the military doesn’t want to abandon it. It has had a good run recently so he would stand back and watch.

Very speculative so wouldn’t put your whole portfolio into it. These are very early days and he thinks John Chen is doing a fantastic job. Forget about the handset. What you are doing now is buying a software company. In another year or 2, we will have 5 billion smart phones out there. Secure communications going forward will become critically important. This is a software company that you are buying right around Book Value.

Their long-term vision is very elusive because of the change in management. This is a rebirth, the ability for new management to position the company and to talk about what it is going to do. From what he can see, they are going to be very much more a niche product versus a consumer product, which would be a very good thing. The question is, how do they define that niche and what inroads will the competition make as they are trying to define themselves. Right now you have a very large Short position and a lot of scared Shorts so he would think there is some upside in the short term. If you see a 20% gain from here, Sell and move on.

Biggest mistake last year was buying into this company. Thinks that John Chen is a good turn around person. He turned around Sybase. Feels this company has tremendous potential. Has better than $1 billion in revenue every quarter and still has a pretty good balance sheet. You have to watch that Prem Watsa doesn’t hold too much sway.

Everyone is going to have a smart phone in the next 5 to 10 years and BB will participate in this market. They will not be number 1 but they could be number 5-8 and still make good money. It’s cheap and undervalued but it could be years to get to $20-$25. You might be able to trade it up to $10 in the short term. Will be volatile over the next two years.

This is going to have tough sledding. Fundamental change factors on this are very negative and remain very negative. The new CEO will likely clean house. You are really making a bet over a 3 to 5 year period that Mr. Chen is going to figure out new product areas while defending the core enterprise.

It is in the hands of complete speculation right now. You won’t have earnings for years. Would never invest in it.

Enormous risk in this story and there always has been. Very speculative stock. Very hard to know. There is some value there. Just reported $4.4 billion of losses this quarter. Parts are probably worth more than the whole at this point.

(Market Call Minute.) This one will come back, but it is too early.

(A Top Pick Nov 26/12. Down 43.45%.) Had never owned this in the fund, but does own some personally. This one looked good a year ago. If it were trading above $10.34, which was his last line, it would be “coming out of the blue” again, a positive position in his funds.