Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) (ATD.B.TO)

TOP PICK

Just made a small US acquisition. Had pulled back into the $46 area which is where he bought. For the 1st time, with a bit more earnings estimates increases, you have a multiple under 20 times. This gives you a growth stock of US consumer and European. There are lots of things more that they can do. Yield of 0.37%.

TOP PICK

Expects they will continue making acquisitions, but is not sure there are that many deals left in the US. They just entered Europe 2 years ago, and there is not much competition there. An exceptionally attractive stock right now because of lower oil prices, and a lot of oil companies might want to monetize their retail outlets. Yield of 0.37%.

BUY

Showing up in his ranking system as a stock that you want to own. In Canada you want names that are slightly defensive, given the uncertain outlook for the economy. Convenience stores and dollar stores are relatively defensive. Trading at 20X forward PE with a still very decent growth rate.

HOLD

This has been one of the better retailing stories we have had for quite a while. Growing in the 15% range and trading at 20X earnings. Doesn’t own it because of the valuations, but he wouldn’t suggest that you Sell your holdings.

TOP PICK

Has a tremendous consolidation strategy. Canada has certain skills that we are really good at to a point. One of these skills has been bundling up disparate small businesses. This company has taken it to quite an extent in Canada and North America, but where the real growth is, is going to be in Europe where they made a big move into Scandinavia. Over the next few years will be a chance for them to take a difficult situation to replicate what they have been able to do in Canada. Dividend yield of 0.38%.

COMMENT

This company benefits from lower oil prices. As oil prices fall there is a lag before the price at the pump falls, so companies like this get that benefit. There are also more miles being driven by consumers. They could look to acquire the Esso gas stations that Imperial Oil (IMO-T) wants to get rid of. Good name and extremely well-managed. If you have a five-year or longer horizon, it is not too expensive to get into now.

WAIT

A high-quality Canadian name. Have done an outstanding job with acquisitions in Norway and just did a deal in the US. There is further ground for them to cover to do acquisitions in Canada and the US. They are a natural buyer as they have the balance sheet and can take on the leverage and are great at integrating. Thinks the recent spike is because of a lot of investors were seeking safety after moving out of energy. Over the long-term he doesn’t think you can go wrong, but pick away when it has a bump. At this level he doesn’t see a lot of upside.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 6/14. Up 75.43%.) The Pantry acquisition made a lot of sense. It is amazing to see a Canadian company that is so well regarded globally. He still buys this when new money comes in to his accounts. Not too late to get into it.

HOLD

It is on the expensive side. They have European exposure, but as oil prices come down, gas prices also go down but typically people have more money to go in the store to buy things which is where their margin is. This is a pretty good time for these guys. Expects margins to be maintained. He would wait for 10% more and then exit. The multiples are pretty high.

COMMENT

Had a great run right after they announced The Pantry acquisition, but has recently pulled back. Thinks there were concerns about the valuation of some of these consumer staples and discretionary stocks. There is also some question as to whether they overpaid for the acquisition. He has a lot of conviction in what management does. This probably goes higher.

BUY

This has performed very well over the last few years. Has a long-term track record and they continue to grow their earnings, both organically and by acquisition. The acquisition of The Pantry that will be closing soon, is not the best operation out there, so there should be a lot of room for the company to squeeze out more cost benefits. While the stock is not cheap, it should be a core name in your portfolio.

DON'T BUY

This stock has done brilliantly well. Management has made a series of excellent acquisitions which have been accretive to their value. However, at the present time, the price of the stock has outrun its intrinsic value. He judges it to be about 22% overvalued.

BUY

Fantastic company. A little bit on the expensive side. He used to own this. They have a couple of acquisitions that they just announced last week that look fantastic. Great management team. Trading at 23X Forward Earnings, while most companies he owns are trading at 15X Forward PE or lower.

BUY

Lots of exposure outside Canada. It is attractive in this market. It is a growth by acquisition story.

COMMENT

Stock s. Stock. ATD.B-T vs. PKI-T. Similar but different businesses. He owns PKI-T. ATD.B-T is more in the convenience store business. They use fuel to bring people into the convenience store. PKI-T is just concerned with pumping fuel.

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