Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) (ATD.B.TO)

HOLD

A fantastic company, but had a much higher P/E ratio than virtually anything else that he owned, so he sold his holdings, strictly on the basis of valuation. He regrets it because it keeps going higher. If he owned it now, he would probably just hold on to it.

COMMENT

This is not a value stock. Has had a very good run. Very smart management. A lot of their growth has been by acquisition. Good operations in Canada and US as well as Europe. He looks at the multiples and can't justify the current price. If you want to play this, Metro (MRU-T) owns about 5%-8%, and has been doing very well lately.

COMMENT

There has been such a huge run in all the consumer staples names, both in Canada and the US, all year. This company falls into that category. Not cheap from a valuation standpoint, but comparing it to a lot of the other consumer staples names, it is probably one that he likes the best. Thinks they will continue to execute on their acquisition strategy. Every time they do an acquisition, the market gets nervous about what is happening, and they end up with bigger synergies and stronger numbers. Thinks this will go higher.

COMMENT

Convenience stores with gas station exposure. Great company and one that was very resilient in the October market correction. What is significant is its revenue and profit that it has generated outside of Canada. About 48% is coming from the US and 35% from Europe. This is a rollup story, so it is out acquiring convenience stores. Has done a very good job on the acquisitions it has done along the way. Generates a staggering $1 billion in free cash flow. Increases its dividend, but doesn't have a massive dividend yield. A little expensive, so you have to be valuation sensitive when you buy.

TOP PICK

With the dislocation of resource stocks in Canada, he believes that names like this are going to see the benefit of outflows from that volatile sector. You also have their move of fresh foods rolling out into some of their stores. Yield of 0.48%.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 16/13. Up 55.79%.) Wouldn’t be surprised if they made another acquisition. They are pretty disciplined in what they do. He continues to hold it and is comfortable with it.

WEAK BUY

Dividend increases are what you want to see. Thinks you can do better in others with higher yields. This one will be around for quite some time, however.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 16/13. Up 54.18%.) They are on the acquisition hunt again. Management has always been very good at what they do. Every time they make an acquisition, analysts get nervous and that seems to be the time to Buy the stock. This has been consolidating for the last several months and has just broken out along with their earnings, so he expects we can see the next leg up on the stock again.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 16/13. Up 39.45%.) Sold his holdings at around $29. Looking at this from a fundamental standpoint, it is a very strong company and they continue to make acquisitions. Has been in a trading range for a while now and is consolidating, which is healthy for a company. Wouldn’t be surprised if it started to make a bit of a move and that there is a catalyst in the form of another acquisition.

DON'T BUY

This has been an amazing story. Well run. They’ve expanded their footprint in North America and there is talk of them expanding in Europe. Like a lot of growth stories, you are paying for a lot of growth in the stock. As long as they can continue to execute the way they have, and the economy holds up, it will continue to do all right, but thinks we have seen a lot of the capital appreciation already built-in to its price.

TOP PICK

Rumoured to be interested in acquiring China’s Sinopec, but it would be a very odd thing for them to do. They are conservative acquisitors. They do have an acquisition strategy, which they have been employing, and which seems to be paying off. Last year they entered Europe, and from what she understands, are now going to consolidate in Northern Europe. They are not crazy about Southern Europe. This should allow for many more years of growth. Yield of 0.52%.

BUY

The long-term chart is in an upward move. Buy when it pulls back to the trendline. Looks great.

COMMENT

This is in a sector that he thinks is getting tired. However, there is still no sign of a top on his charts. The one-year chart shows a long area, from March to August, of consolidation at around $30. If you are in this, be very careful. Thinks it is dead money.

STRONG BUY

A recent acquisition of gas stations in Europe included a lot of other assets like tanker trucks. The weaker earnings that just came out have to do with the margins in gas. It is holding its level very well here.

BUY

Likes the stock. Feels management is brilliant. Made a massive acquisition in Europe. Great, long-term hold.

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