Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO)

This announcement wasn't a surprise. Size of previous M&A attempts spooked investors. Today is its investor day, announced EPS growth of 10+% until 2030 -- that they can do this without big deals gives people more confidence. Still owns, would buy today.

Owns it, but not a large weight. Not one of her top positions. Delivers operational stability and dividend growth. Impacted by volatility on fuel margins, lack of big acquisitions, and modest organic growth, which have kept the stock range-bound.

Analysts still see long-term upside of 13-20% from here. Next leg up likely depends on a major deal or a clear acceleration in returns. Food demand is steady, fuel demand is soft but improving, margins have a good upward trend, global footprint expansion. Constructive on a long-term play. She's giving it more time to play out, but will likely take some profits when it hits her price target.

Are the go-to dealmaker in this space. He doesn't like companies that grow by buying other companies and prefers internal growth (safer). Benefits from more consumer buying gas-powered cars. He holds a tiny position but will buy more.

His preference in the grocery/retail space.

Sees 13% upside from here. Despite risks to slower consumer spending, convenience store items will continue to do well. Resilient business model for everyday consumer demand. Scale and operational efficiency help maintain margins. Trending sideways for a year. Investing in store upgrades and digital initiatives. Modest dividend.

The real value comes from ability to generate cash and reinvest in growth. She remains constructive long term. Ranks 9/10 on fundamentals.

EPS of 78c beat estimates of 75c; revenue of $17.86B was in line with estimates. The dividend was raised 10%. Canadian stores saw 5% growth. The US was 1.2%, which was much better than the 0.4% the prior quarter and the previous seven quarters (all of which showed declines). Couche-Tard's pricing discipline and scale should keep producing above-peer fuel margins in 2H, though competition in US border regions and softer demand could limit upside. US fuel margins held steady near recent levels in 2Q, underscoring supply-chain resilience, sourcing flexibility and disciplined procurement. Canada and Europe remained more favorable, supported by trading strength, contract renewals in Germany and improved wholesale execution.

With cost growth still below inflation and SG&A normalizing, full-year gross margin should top fiscal 2025, even if 2H gains are muted. Stores momentum improved as US comparable sales rose 1.2% on strong food-service and nicotine promotions, Canada increased 5.4% on alcohol and Europe benefited from meal-deal rollouts and higher EV-charging traffic.
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Disappointed they didn't buy 7-Eleven, but they hold a lot of cash and are seeking another company to buy. Have a great track record in integrating new companies.

Still generates significant amount of income from retail operations. Still ongoing interest in acquiring other US stores. Street analysts rate it a Buy. Strong brand, still has opportunities on a global scale and in digital transformation. Disciplined cost controls. Consistent dividend growth. Scores 8/10 on fundamentals.

Difficult space to be in. Very good business, big global player. But the market doesn't seem to care about these large, slow-moving companies. Investors want momentum and the more interesting spaces. Wait and see how things play out on the acquisition front.

Still making acquisitions in US and other geographies, though not at the scope of the elephant-hunting with 7-Eleven. Might be another chapter to the 7-Eleven story.

Not a management team you want to bet against in finding a way to grow. Trades ~17x PE, right in the middle of its historical average. Needs to get back to its long-term growth outlook -- based on same-store sales growth, acquisitions, and cost control. Not a screaming buy today, but you can keep holding for the long term.

He's a huge fan, owning it almost his entire career. Very attractive valuation. The potential Seven & i acquisition really spooked the market, and a selloff ensued. Not a lot of excitement around the name right now. Could be a bit of economic weakness coming, with an attack on discretionary income.

Generates massive cashflows, which gives them so many options -- buy back shares, increase dividend, make acquisitions. Excellent at allocating capital. All this likely to reasonably boost EPS. Good growth (though not AI-type growth) at roughly 17x PE. Reasonable price for high-quality compounder.

Beaten down on concerns about potential spending. Now seeing a slow recovery. Struggled to beat expectations over the last year. Over the next 12 months, he'd bet that this name would beat expectations rather than a Loblaw. Gas prices are settling, but margins are still OK, so that should benefit the convenience store segment. Decent valuation.

We would be comfortable buying ATD at 18X earnings today, considering its solid long-term history and good outlook for continued growth.
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