Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO)

Doing a better job with in-store food service. Above-industry-average fuel margins amidst tepid demand. Undemanding valuation. Unprecedented back-to-back EPS misses, so sets up for easy comparisons. Ample financial firepower to make interesting moves.

The chart's been swinging up and down, between $68-84 for the last couple years. Is slowly working its way up. Is a defensive retailer. Is holdings its own in the high $70s, so he's looking for resistance in the low-$80s, with support at $77. Can't tell how far up it will go.

He has a small position, was somewhat relieved when the 7-Eleven deal in Japan didn't go through. Now has really strong balance sheet. Focused more on organic growth. Still opportunities for M&A, but probably less ambitious than last year. Reasonably priced.

Question of capturing the margin on elevated gas prices, and will it constrain volumes?

Likes it, but didn't like them going after Carrefour or 7-11. The high oil price is a short-term pressure. The valuation is attractive again.

Recent report wasn't bad. Market's concern is that fuel costs will be intolerable and there will be fewer visits, hurting store sales. He doesn't think oil's high enough to have that impact. Guidance for Q3 and Q4 was pretty healthy.

Really good companies tend to be expensive. Not bad value at 24x PE for 15% growth. Less expensive than usual. Good long-term wealth builder to add at these levels.

This announcement wasn't a surprise. Size of previous M&A attempts spooked investors. Today is its investor day, announced EPS growth of 10+% until 2030 -- that they can do this without big deals gives people more confidence. Still owns, would buy today.

Owns it, but not a large weight. Not one of her top positions. Delivers operational stability and dividend growth. Impacted by volatility on fuel margins, lack of big acquisitions, and modest organic growth, which have kept the stock range-bound.

Analysts still see long-term upside of 13-20% from here. Next leg up likely depends on a major deal or a clear acceleration in returns. Food demand is steady, fuel demand is soft but improving, margins have a good upward trend, global footprint expansion. Constructive on a long-term play. She's giving it more time to play out, but will likely take some profits when it hits her price target.

Are the go-to dealmaker in this space. He doesn't like companies that grow by buying other companies and prefers internal growth (safer). Benefits from more consumer buying gas-powered cars. He holds a tiny position but will buy more.

His preference in the grocery/retail space.

Sees 13% upside from here. Despite risks to slower consumer spending, convenience store items will continue to do well. Resilient business model for everyday consumer demand. Scale and operational efficiency help maintain margins. Trending sideways for a year. Investing in store upgrades and digital initiatives. Modest dividend.

The real value comes from ability to generate cash and reinvest in growth. She remains constructive long term. Ranks 9/10 on fundamentals.

EPS of 78c beat estimates of 75c; revenue of $17.86B was in line with estimates. The dividend was raised 10%. Canadian stores saw 5% growth. The US was 1.2%, which was much better than the 0.4% the prior quarter and the previous seven quarters (all of which showed declines). Couche-Tard's pricing discipline and scale should keep producing above-peer fuel margins in 2H, though competition in US border regions and softer demand could limit upside. US fuel margins held steady near recent levels in 2Q, underscoring supply-chain resilience, sourcing flexibility and disciplined procurement. Canada and Europe remained more favorable, supported by trading strength, contract renewals in Germany and improved wholesale execution.

With cost growth still below inflation and SG&A normalizing, full-year gross margin should top fiscal 2025, even if 2H gains are muted. Stores momentum improved as US comparable sales rose 1.2% on strong food-service and nicotine promotions, Canada increased 5.4% on alcohol and Europe benefited from meal-deal rollouts and higher EV-charging traffic.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Disappointed they didn't buy 7-Eleven, but they hold a lot of cash and are seeking another company to buy. Have a great track record in integrating new companies.

Still generates significant amount of income from retail operations. Still ongoing interest in acquiring other US stores. Street analysts rate it a Buy. Strong brand, still has opportunities on a global scale and in digital transformation. Disciplined cost controls. Consistent dividend growth. Scores 8/10 on fundamentals.

Difficult space to be in. Very good business, big global player. But the market doesn't seem to care about these large, slow-moving companies. Investors want momentum and the more interesting spaces. Wait and see how things play out on the acquisition front.