Aecon Group Inc (ARE.TO)

There are a handful of engineering/construction companies in Canada. This had a big run up with all the big infrastructure stocks. A pretty good company. Very cheap valuation. The quarters kind of bounce around depending on whether they have a contract hitting the quarter or not. A solid name, but would prefer WSP Global (WSP-T), more of an international company that has made some great acquisitions. Even Stantec (STN-T) looks a little better on their history and long-term record of profitability.

He tends to favour engineering names such as SNC-Lavalin (SNC-T). Construction names are a lower margin business, and end up being hyper competitive, and results never seem to trickle down to the common shareholder. If looking for exposure to construction and stimulus spending, focus more on the engineering side.

Probably not a bad thing to be buying now. Trading in line with its 3-year average, but cheaper than its peers. 2017 is probably going to be an off year for them in terms of revenues. Beyond that, he sees really nice growth. They have a really good infrastructure backlog which will really help them. Just increased their dividend by 8.2%. Very strong balance sheet. He sees good growth into 2018.

(A Top Pick March 16/16. Up 10%.) He still likes this. Sold his holdings at around $18.75 as he thought it had got ahead of the macro infrastructure. It then had a big dip and he started acquiring it again in late 2016.

In Canadian budgets, there is a real emphasis on infrastructure spending. There aren’t many infrastructure players in Canada that are public, but this is one of the oldest. They are spread across the country and are one of the leading providers, so they will be a beneficiary of increased infrastructure spending. As a result, the stock is bounced quite nicely off its bottom, and is probably trading at a reasonable range. Keep in mind that margins are quite thin. One of his favourite names in this space.

Convertible 5.5% bond due Dec 1/18. (Top Pick Feb 17/16, Up 6%) He sold about two quarters ago.

Last quarter was pretty decent with the dividend being bumped 10%. It comes and goes with some of the contracts they have won. The stock is cheap. He prefers others in the sector.

Alberta is bouncing back a little. It was a drag on them over the last couple of years. Trudeau and Trump are promising infrastructure spending and that will benefit them. (Analysts’ target: $18).

He likes this company. Not only are they strong in infrastructure, but are also strong in energy spending, in particular in their Alberta acquisition they did a couple of years ago. They’ve been improving their operating margins. Volatility was always a big problem, where they got the big giant contracts and ended up losing money because of cost overruns. They’ve got that under better control and are stabilizing the earnings growth.

(A Top Pick Jan 27/16. Up 18.6%.) It did well after he bought it, but then struggled in the last couple of months. Had a disappointing 3^rd quarter earnings result in November, and took a big hit. That was followed a few days later by the resignation of their CEO. Part of the problem in their earnings was just the slowness in the infrastructure spending following Trudeau’s campaign. This is looking for a great year in 2018, and a big jump in earnings. He would be a buyer at these levels.

Seasonal strength appears to be from January through to May of each year, when things are being constructed. We are now just at the beginning of a period of seasonal strength. It’s currently in a trading range, so you want to wait until it breaks above that, but then you have a pretty good chance of seeing the stock test the previous high.

Stumbled a little, giving you an opportunity. Management believes that municipal and provincial spend are really going to kick in later in 2017. Any weakness in oil and gas is outweighed from an increase in oil and gas distribution and from their nuclear refurbishment. Their mining segment is really poised for recovery. He is modelling 24% EPS growth from 2016 to 2018 with a 57% payout ratio. Trading below its five-year average. Dividend yield of 2.94%. (Analysts’ price target is $18.12.)

When they reported Q3 results there were several disappointments, mainly due to operations in Western Canada. When we finally get some real infrastructure spending, that should really benefit them. He would buy under $14 and sell above $17.

A good company. The challenge is that a lot of their construction business is in Western Canada, and they have been hurt because of the oil industry slowing down. If you believe the oil industry is now improving, that should help this company to some extent.

Within the engineering/construction companies, this is probably one of the better valued ones. They are not trading at all-time highs, and had a significant downdraft a few months ago, of which they have recovered about half. They are lagging the group, and part of the reason for that is that they had a bit more of a Western exposure. This company has significant operations in Ontario. Very well-run.