Algonquin Power & Utilities CorpAQN.TOWEAK BUYDec 12, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Pullback has to do with its debt level and rising interest rates. More volatile than you'd expect for a utility, partly to do with projects its won/lost. Nice dividend. If you want capital appreciation, may need to manage your position. If you're in it for the income, the income is there.
He owns no utility names right now, based solely on interest rates moving up.
Rates going up will affect utilities. Algonquin Power will keep its TSX listing and will get some US index inclusion. The price is attractive and the dividend yield is 5%. It will take a while for the company to clean itself up but it has started to do so and one day the issues will be better. He is topping up.
Continues working through a multi-year turnaround. Now mostly a regulated utility providing natural gas, water, and electricity. Positive that management's returned focus to simpler utility operations. New, approved utility rates are helping earnings. More than 80% of operations in US, HQ plans to move to US (reduce taxes, attract more US investors).
Debt remains extremely high, earnings growth still modest. She's just monitoring, needs to see more execution.
He owns a preferred share. AQN's problem is the debt from all their acquisitions back in the day; interest rates hit them hard and forced a dividend cut. They sold their renewables business. Then, shares fell after an earnings report that lowered their 2027 profit guidance. AQN now focuses on gas, water and electric services. The street is saying to them, "Prove to me you can make money again." It's sitting in the penalty box waiting for management to show a positive move.
They spent a lot to enter the renewables space and overlevered the balance sheet. That was a disaster. They've been cleaning that up to be a pure-play utility, which is a predictable business that investors like. They have completely new leadership and have reset. This offers safe, predictable income.
Probably a more positive outlook for 2025 than in 2024. A warning for those who invest just for the dividend; high yield doesn't always mean the stock price is safe. Beaten up already, and then tax-loss season came along.
Peeling back the layers, it's still well run. At these levels, don't buy it for income. You're buying for growth. In the medium term, there are growth opportunities here.