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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

TOP PICK
Likes it better than Potash (POT-T) on a valuation basis and is more diversified. If they can complete the CF acquisition it could add more to it. The vertical integration will give them more stable earnings growth. Good long-term story.
TOP PICK
If you were going to buy one fertilizer stock, this is it. You get the retail side in the US and Canada. You get pieces of all 3 of potash, nitrogen and phosphate. There is also still the chance that they acquire C F industries.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes longer-term. Some things to resolve. Will they get CF? Also their contract with China seems to be up in the air. Would buy at $58.
SELL
Thinks the stock will retest $60, which is the support level before it heads up again. Bit of a choppy stock. If you own, consider taking some profits here and buy back at a lower level.
COMMENT
Likes agricultural stocks for the long term, which have had a nice little pop in the last little while because inventories are running low and expected increased demand. This company is still involved in CF Industries and she is not sure how this is going to end up.
COMMENT
Looking like it is on the verge of breaking out over a resistance point, which may give another 20% on the upside. If it goes up a bit and can't hold, it could set back as much as 30%. In sharp contrast to Potash (POT-T), which is very high and where the FMV continues to fall. This could also affect the stock.
BUY
Trends are pretty positive in the fertilizer space. When natural gas in Europe is expensive, this company has a cost advantage. Use a stoploss.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 2w3/09. Up 42.8%.) Trying to acquire C F Industries. Still likes. 2-year outlook is really good.
DON'T BUY
Canadian Agribusiness firms are a little pricey right now. They can come down a little more before they are interesting. Has a premium built in because of take-over rumors.
TOP PICK
Would like to see them finish the CF Industries acquisition one way or another. Starting to fall together. Fundamentals for the industry are getting better.
COMMENT
Deadline for acquiring CF Industries is tonight but he feels another deadline could be set. Likes the agricultural sector in general but this company has had a fantastic run and if you bought it near the lows you might consider selling it.
BUY
Their nitrogen and some of their potash is in good shape and from an earnings growth perspective you have to look at 2011 where he expects to see a very nice improvement in demand outlook for fertilizers.
TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 15/09. Up 68.1%.) The world has to eat. There are 3.5 billion people in the world and we are using 99% of arable land. Agricultural stocks are starting to move.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 23/08. Up 77.7%.) Still likes. Thinks that nitrogen, potash and phosphate will all have a pretty good 2010. Buy on weakness.
BUY
Seasonality for fertilizer tends to go from July until the end of the year. This one has almost doubled from the bottom and is getting a little rich but technically looks okay. Chart shows an ascending triangle, which is positive. Don't hold up past December.
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