Agrium (AGU.TO)

We have nice 3-year trend. He would look at $106 for support. He sold a little while ago because it was purely a seasonal play.

Sold his holdings after their poor earnings report. Still trading at a reasonable valuation. Fear is that natural gas prices are not going to be as low as they were last year, which starts to affect their input costs. Still likes the business, the wholesale and retail, which spreads out the risk for the whole company. Would like this one below $100. He is looking at Potash (POT-T) as the play for next year.

Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T)? A lot of attention has been drawn to this one due to activism and it has been a wonderful ride. If you own, taking a little bit of risk off the table would not be a bad idea.

Current price is a direct result of people pushing Jana’s interest. His target is $125 and when it gets up to that level, he will probably Sell. There are still risks related to weather and planting conditions this coming summer. Backup position is just to switch into Potash (POT-T). 0.93% dividend and EPS of $9.50.

Not bad from an industry perspective, but it is really struggling to get above $100 and then a report brought it down about 10%. He is going to take his profits and sell very soon.

Likes it because of their retail business but the real thing is the growth in demand for food for the populations in developing nations. To prevent rebellion, governments are going to have to feed their people, which will mean they have to import all kinds of nitrogen for corn and potash and phosphate for other crops. Has a target of $120.

He doesn’t invest in resource stocks because he doesn’t like taking the risk of resource prices. However, long-term for this company is very promising. There is only so much land in the world and so much food we can grow, but the population is growing quickly. In the short term, there is a bit of oversupply.

Raised dividend twice in last year as a result of the impact of Jana partners. Thinks breaking up the business is not agreeable but if it gets them to cut back on costs then it benefits all shareholders.

He is neutral on this with a target of $94. This is a company that he buys for new clients because he likes it on a long-term basis.

Has been avoiding space for a while because the agricultural trade got overdone for a while. He is not following the boardroom battles. See how it plays out before you take a position. This would be his first choice in this space.

If you miss, the market really moves. He got in when it went down. Outlook for India and China demand is getting pushed back 6 months. It will be soft for 6 months. This is a great entry point.

Pulled back after its quarter. Their retail division suffered, onetime non-operating issues, and their pot ash mine was off line for a while. She bought when it pulled back for new clients.

(Market Call Minute) Hammered and over done when they released earnings.

Fertilizer seasonality basically runs from August into the end of the year. This is the time period when the cash flow tends to happen. If you own, keep an eye on it at the end of the year. Put a stop on it and trigger out.

One analyst figured there is 10% upside, but a lot of that is the hedge funds going at them and trying to split up the company. Personally he feels it is more stable with the 2 parts of the company together. Would prefer quite a bit lower.