Stock Opinions by Michael Underhill - Stockchase Experts
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Michael Underhill @

On Stockchase since : Jan 2013

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds at Capital Innovations

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Stock Opinions by Michael Underhill - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

October 24, 2016

Markets.  Real assets such as Agriculture, Real Estate, Collectibles, Commodities, and infrastructure are at their cheapest relative to financial assets since the late 1920s.   When you look at some of the metrics on some of these you see monetary policy.  They prop up financial assets.  Emerging market real estate is really quite cheap.  Depending upon the type of real estate, there are different kinds of metrics.  Student housing, for example, looks cheap in Latin America but in the US it looks expensive.  People are going into Britain and buying real estate.  Companies that export outside of the UK are doing quite well.

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Markets.  Real assets such as Agriculture, Real Estate, Collectibles, Commodities, and infrastructure are at their cheapest relative to financial assets since the late 1920s.   When you look at some of the metrics on some of these you see monetary policy.  They prop up financial assets.  Emerging market real estate is really quite cheap.  Depending upon the type of real estate, there are different kinds of metrics.  Student housing, for example, looks cheap in Latin America but in the US it looks expensive.  People are going into Britain and buying real estate.  Companies that export outside of the UK are doing quite well.

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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$0.020
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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

October 24, 2016

Financial services.  If you look at their ability to manage their rate exposure, they can’t manage it in Europe with negative interest rates.

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Financial services.  If you look at their ability to manage their rate exposure, they can’t manage it in Europe with negative interest rates.

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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$0.020
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COMMENT

It is a comparable to DE-N.  It has a nice chart, nice dividend and nice growth.  It is more of a growth play than DE-N, which is more of a value play. 

machinery
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It is a comparable to DE-N.  It has a nice chart, nice dividend and nice growth.  It is more of a growth play than DE-N, which is more of a value play. 

machinery
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$47.650
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Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Agrium(AGU-T) 

October 24, 2016

AGU-T vs. POT-T.  How much are the stocks going to be worth after the merger?  A lot of the value has been squeezed out of the play.  POT-T is more of a deep value play.  POT-T will give you a little bit better yield and is his preferred.

chemicals
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AGU-T vs. POT-T.  How much are the stocks going to be worth after the merger?  A lot of the value has been squeezed out of the play.  POT-T is more of a deep value play.  POT-T will give you a little bit better yield and is his preferred.

chemicals
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$124.280
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Unknown

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WEAK BUY

AGU-T vs. POT-T.  How much are the stocks going to be worth after the merger?  A lot of the value has been squeezed out of the play.  POT-T is more of a deep value play.  POT-T will give you a little bit better yield and is his preferred.

integrated mines
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AGU-T vs. POT-T.  How much are the stocks going to be worth after the merger?  A lot of the value has been squeezed out of the play.  POT-T is more of a deep value play.  POT-T will give you a little bit better yield and is his preferred.

integrated mines
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$22.370
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Unknown

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BUY

It is a regulatory risk when you look at the softwood lumber agreement. You will see more softness in these stocks.  Take a long look at prices and charts, but accumulate positions because they are not making any more trees.  

west coast forestry
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It is a regulatory risk when you look at the softwood lumber agreement. You will see more softness in these stocks.  Take a long look at prices and charts, but accumulate positions because they are not making any more trees.  

west coast forestry
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$2.010
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HOLD
IBI Group(IBG-T) 

October 24, 2016

It is an infrastructure spending play.  If you took a profit at this juncture you may be a bit early.  The planning phase takes years for one of these projects.  Infrastructure spending comes from fiscal stimulus.  There is going to be more infrastructure spending and more projects.  There will be a longer term need for these companies.  This stock has troughed out, but you could make more in the future. 

Business Services
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It is an infrastructure spending play.  If you took a profit at this juncture you may be a bit early.  The planning phase takes years for one of these projects.  Infrastructure spending comes from fiscal stimulus.  There is going to be more infrastructure spending and more projects.  There will be a longer term need for these companies.  This stock has troughed out, but you could make more in the future. 

Business Services
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$6.330
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Unknown

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BUY
Interfor Corp(IFP-T) 

October 24, 2016

It has an implicit value of $20 per share so there is significant upside.  He would not cut losses at this juncture.  There is not that much more downside.  It is an opportunity.

west coast forestry
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It has an implicit value of $20 per share so there is significant upside.  He would not cut losses at this juncture.  There is not that much more downside.  It is an opportunity.

west coast forestry
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$14.990
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Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Agrium(AGU-T) 

October 24, 2016

AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock. They don’t use opportunistic hedges, but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

chemicals
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AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock. They don’t use opportunistic hedges, but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

chemicals
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$124.280
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock.  They don’t use opportunistic hedges but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

food processing
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AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock.  They don’t use opportunistic hedges but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

food processing
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$42.510
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Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Down 21.54%) You look at the correction in oil hitting harder than expected and then you look at the yield and the outlook for energy.  This would be a good value play where you get paid to wait. 

gas pipelines
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(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Down 21.54%) You look at the correction in oil hitting harder than expected and then you look at the yield and the outlook for energy.  This would be a good value play where you get paid to wait. 

gas pipelines
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$36.870
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Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Up 70.22%) The healthy eating trends yields $200 billion of capital flowing into organic and healthy eating foods.  There is 60-70% margins on organic milk.  It is really a growth story. 

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(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Up 70.22%) The healthy eating trends yields $200 billion of capital flowing into organic and healthy eating foods.  There is 60-70% margins on organic milk.  It is really a growth story. 

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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$54.550
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Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
International Paper Co(IP-N) 

October 24, 2016

(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Up 2.98%) They have been suffering from the strong dollar.  In the future you will see better comps and better balance sheet strength.  You are starting to see slow growth.

paper products/business forms
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(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Up 2.98%) They have been suffering from the strong dollar.  In the future you will see better comps and better balance sheet strength.  You are starting to see slow growth.

paper products/business forms
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$46.710
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Yes

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General Market Comment 

October 24, 2016

Investing in US Companies.  Short term currency risks are the fastest way to lose money.  Be very careful round currency risk.  There is more currency risk and uncertainty to come.  Look for a fund that manages currency risk for you.  

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Investing in US Companies.  Short term currency risks are the fastest way to lose money.  Be very careful round currency risk.  There is more currency risk and uncertainty to come.  Look for a fund that manages currency risk for you.  

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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$0.020
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WEAK BUY
Aecon Group Inc(ARE-T) 

October 24, 2016

If you are looking for a company in the design and engineering space, this one can benefit.  They have not experienced the benefit in the last 3 to 5 years.  You could look at utilities in the shorter term.  It is one of the leading companies out there and there is nothing questionable about the balance sheet.  It is not the top idea in the portfolio, however. 

contractors
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If you are looking for a company in the design and engineering space, this one can benefit.  They have not experienced the benefit in the last 3 to 5 years.  You could look at utilities in the shorter term.  It is one of the leading companies out there and there is nothing questionable about the balance sheet.  It is not the top idea in the portfolio, however. 

contractors
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Michael Underhi

Portfolio , Capital Innovations...

Price Price
$17.980
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Unknown

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