Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)

Good option for bullish gold investors. Quality assets and managemnet. 

Costs have risen across the industry, and grades have fallen vs average. But we are not so sure we would call 30% YTD 'humdrum'. AEM remains cheap, with a good dividend and growth prospects. We think gold looks fine. Post-2008 stimulus, it did take gold a few years to move, and we think its post-Covid move is just beginning. Lower US rates (if/when) will help. Gold's inflation trade did not pan out well in 2022 but we do not think gold has been impacted that much by crypto. Investors still do not 'flock' to crypto during times of crisis and we doubt they will. In non-US currencies, gold has done much better. In the scenarios we would see gold and AEM moving under #1 and #3, and less so under #2 because of its hyper -sensitivity to interest rates in that scenario. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

One the world's largest gold producers (Canada's largest). Pure play on gold (99% of production). Has paid dividend since 1983 - grown at 17% compounding rate. 12 operating mines across the globe. Not facing geopolitical risk with strong management team. Dividend at ~4% is very safe. Good name to own if bullish on gold. 

Good place if bullish on gold. 

Well run company with strong management team. Gold stocks lagging gold prices. Many large banks buying gold to hedge against inflation. Would wait for further weakness in market before buying gold stocks. 

Gold moves with interest rates and the US dollar, as well as with money printing. Like in 2008, it took a while (to 2010) before gold started to really react to all the stimulus that was put in place during the financial crisis. Now, the same thing may be happening with post-covid stimulus making its way through to gold. The prospects of lower interest rates also helps gold, and we have seen news of China buying as well as central banks buying globally. We cannot time how long it will continue but gold does move on sentiment, and positive sentiment could certainly continue longer. In a rally, we prefer stocks over bullion. Bullion can work better in a 'crisis' but we do not think we are setting up for that. AEM, KRR and FNV look good to us.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Likes company and believes company is well run. Current valuation is high - would recommend waiting to buy on weakness. Excellent management team. Control on costs has been very strong. Good for long term investment. 

A top senior gold producer, owning Canada's 2 biggest mines. A core holding and he expects dividend growth as the price of gold climbs. $75 is an easy price target. $80-90 is possible if gold hits $2,400. Inflation is fading, which also helps this sector. Excellent margins and solid balance sheet.

That's the problem with the stalwart stocks, unlike a small company. AEM'S 5-year chart beats gold by 12%. The gold outlook is healthy. If AEM leads to the downside, a problem in the commodity will emerge later.

He prefers industrial metals and other commodities. He wonders if gold is still the safe haven that it used to be. Chart's meandering sideways. Price slightly below 200-day and 200-week MA. Decent yield of 3.75%, seems steady, may move higher. He'd prefer the traditional dividend stocks like telecom, banks, pipelines.

In line with peers over the last 18-24 months, not doing much. Symptom of sentiment. Top-tier name, good management, excellent balance sheet, good ROC, attractive yield. But that's not enough until gold breaks, and holds above, $2000 USD/oz.

Need to check fundamentals. Unsure on direction of chart. Used to hedge pricing, but not anymore.