Adobe Systems (ADBE)

AI hype overkill. The business is not going away. Everyone needs an Adobe Reader on their computer, and what will replace that? Stock's fallen significantly -- do you want to catch a falling knife? Have to wait for a floor before entering.

It's hard to replace an operating system that Microsoft makes, but you can replace Adobe's security software to protect your documents.

He bought more shares. The software apocalypse is totally overblown. How many PDFs did you open today? Anthropic won't replace Adobe anytime soon. Trades at only 13x PE. They grow their topline 10% annually and bottom EPS around 15%. The PE fell from 30x from 3 years ago. It's too cheap now.

Here's another of these software stocks. They will come back, eventually. All the software companies are talking about how they'll integrate agents. But then Anthropic came out with a tool that'll can do all the stuff that Adobe sells. 

He'd get out of the way. He gets out of positions in thirds. Another 2-3 earnings periods are needed for things to settle down. You don't have to rush in to start a position; you'll get another chance.

The narrative is that AI will eat all software. There is a kernal of truth, but Adobe is still growing at double digits in revenue and growing in EPS. Are adding a lot of new subscribers to its creative cloud business and subscription business every quarter. His daughter is a creative and consider Adobe indispensable for her business. Adobe is embedding AI into its products. Also, its PE has fallen from 35x to 15x, which is very appealing.

We think it has the potential to bounce, and it is now trading at very cheap multiples of 12.6X forward earnings. But, the AI situation is evolving, and it is not quite clear how large the potential disruption to its business could be, but we are seeing a lot of captiulation across software names. We feel if manage executes well here, and software names begin to demonstrate their internal AI tools are creating value, then we feel that it could eventually re-rate. Forward earnings growth is expected to be in the low double-digit range, and analyst estimate trends are mostly flat.
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Has had a terrible couple of years, but earnings continue to come in better than expected. The stock is starting to respond; it didn't get crushed in December's tax-loss selling is proof.

You'd expect tax-loss selling to pummel software names like Adobe, but it didn't happen. After 3 years of hearing that AI will kill their the software business, the world is recognizing 3 years of great profits from these companies that are well-run. Software stocks probably will perform in 2026.

Over-hyped the AI side of its business too much, and that hurt it a lot. People have been predicting it's going to disappear (same as GOOG) -- that won't happen. Great opportunity in AI with the creative products it offers, but it will take time. Failed acquisition of Figma also hurt. But all those concerns are already in the stock. At these levels it's 14x PE, has rarely traded so cheaply. Compounding machine.

Grown topline by ~10% since 2020, and bought back 10% of shares. Great business, everyone still uses it. No dividend.

Are concerns that AI will kill Adobe and eat its lunch, but Adobe has been outperforming quarter and quarter for years. Also, sell-offs after reporting have been shrinking. It reports next week.

He just bought this. It will recover to $400. He's heard the bear argument that everyone will ditch software and use AI instead--he doesn't believe it. They had a good earnings report. Is down 55% from its high, but can snap this downtrend swiftly. They can turn it around again--in 2014, they went 100% subscription and became a SAAS giant. Don't be surprised they can reinvent themselves for the AI age. Trades at only 14x PE.

The street thinks AI will kill Adobe, but the numbers tell a different story. Revenue in 2020 was $3.4 billion, and $6 billion in 2025. Adobe had bought back 10% of shares each quarter. Solid growth and valuations are low. The company or the street over-emphasized how AI would help them. Buy at these low current levels.

Start your analysis with the market -- NASDAQ had 87% of companies in an uptrend in July, now that's only 36%. Breadth has been narrowing.

Then look at the sector. Software sector has been relatively underperforming for a couple of months, trading below key support levels. Remember that 70% of your return is being in the right neighbourhood, and this sector's trading below the 200-day MA.

Down at the company level, this name has some challenges. His firm uses Adobe a lot less now that they can use generative AI. Don't buy one of the weakest stocks in a weak sector. Instead, he looks for the strongest sectors on a relative basis and buys the leading stocks within the group.

"Rumours of the death of application software are premature." So many names are under pressure with concerns that AI will remove the need for software-embedded systems. Trading at 16x forward PE, the worst is baked in. Basic programs will still be used, and can implement AI to a large extent. In the short term people aren't going to rip out software they've spent $$ on, though they may migrate over time. 

Stock market tends to worry too much, and this creates buying opportunities. This is one of them. No dividend.