AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)

JNJ vs ABBV? He likes JNJ as a long term winner. It may be too expensive. ABBV was a risky company until they purchased Allergan and diversified their business more. ABBV trades at 8.4 times PE and earnings are expected to grow by 8% and have nice, safe dividend. They are still tethered to Humara, which has a lot of generics being developed. He would favor ABBV, although it is a little riskier than JNJ.

Loves it. He shied away from it in the past because its product offering was concentrated. When they were spun-off from Abbot Labs, it was spun-off with the successful rheumetory arthritis drug, Humira, but the drug made up 63% of company revenues, so the risk was high. In the last year, ABBV bought Allergan which should close this quarter after European and US approvals. Allergan is known for Botox. Together, this will be a great company. It trades at less than 9x PE. Pays a fine 5.5% dividend. The merger is accretive immediately. Great freee cash flow. However, they paid $60 billion for Allergan, but they have the cash flow to pay down that debt at very low interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is $96.33)

Issue is that longer run pipeline is coming to an end. The quest is always for the next big drug out there. Trying to buy Allergan, whose big thing is botox. Political pressure on lower drug prices. Monster yield of over 6.5%.

Good news, bad news. Dividend is beautiful, Q1 beat, cheap valuation, raised outlook for 2019. Problem is it's really levered to Humira, so a one-trick pony. Trying to buy Allergan to diversify. Likes it at a lower level, but cautious. Not really for an RRSP. (Analysts’ price target is $83.70)

Good entry point. Main drug Humira is $20B per year, and yes, its patent will expire in 2021. But they've been reinvesting that cash cow in other drugs. Paying 9x earnings, so it's cheap. Could consolidate around $100. Great dividend, balance sheet. Own it in a basket.