Open Text (OTEX-T)

Pulled back from earlier this year. Broke downward trend line (a really good sign), now seeing a base and a breakout. Technicals look good, could break higher.

Promised a lot, and if they can deliver it will be a great investment. That proof is still in the pudding. Doesn't have a strong opinion on whether management is capable of delivering. He agrees that market's lost confidence in its M&A ability. Expectations are quite low, so it would be easy to do well. A solid hold.

It made an acquisition which the market didn't like and the stock has fallen significantly. It is a growth by acquisition company and tends to have bumpy revenue post acquisition. He thinks it is under-priced here and there is more upside, but it is a show-me story.

About 10% left on the upside runway. Better opportunities elsewhere.

Familiar with business. Good at M&A, but has used a lot of debt in business model. Better options like Constellation Software available for investors. Doesn't own shares. 

It now has a different strategy and is not acquisition driven any more. Other companies are more attractive for returning capital to shareholders.

12-month price target of $48. More appealing, longer runway opportunities elsewhere.

Coming into the low point it saw in 2022, trying to bounce off, so far so good. Earnings will either add to that momentum or do the opposite. He doesn't usually buy the day before earnings.

If earnings news is good, could easily see return to mid-high $50s, a big level of resistance in the past. If you own it, give them the benefit of the doubt. If not, hold off until they report.

Other companies in the space make more sense to him. Getting into AI in a big way. Not impacted by today's market dive too much. He has a 12-month price target of $49.25. Add in thirds here around $43, $41, and $39. (Shouldn't go below $37.50.)

Last earnings beat on top and bottom lines, but not on margins (32% vs. expected 36-37%). Capex with so many companies has just ballooned, as they try to be competitive.

Buying shares in recent market selloff. Latest earnings report not strong. However, business is very good. Would recommend holding for long term investors. Recent M&A has a lot of potential. Expecting higher margins and cash flow. 

Disaster the last 5 years, down about 40%. Should be doing better, given demands for software. Market did not like one expensive acquisition, hurt balance sheet, still not recovered. No interest.

CSU is the one for him. 

It has its moments from time to time, but overall hasn't been great for awhile. Part of the issue is it's still quite levered. There are other compounding machines, but this one just doesn't get the job done. Sell, and buy something like DSG or CSU.

He's looked at it and it's done a fairly good job. Would much prefer ENGH or CSU. And CSU is the clear market leader of companies that rely on acquisitions to drive growth.

OTEX has been trading sideways over the past couple of years, and its recent earnings results sent the stock lower. It remains highly profitable with good free cash flow, and trades at a cheap valuation for a tech stock (8.3X forward earnings). Its low valuation makes it a HOLD, but we would not add and do not like the negative momentum here.
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Growth rates have really come down. It's taking longer to convert customers to cloud and AI. Good, long-term name that will be there. Better areas in AI elsewhere. Good at lower levels, but not here.