National Bank of Canada

NA-T

It's done very well, having grown beyond Quebec in the past 10 years and closed the valuation gap with the big banks. Problem is, can it continue to grow as much in the next 10 years? It lacks international diversification. NA is a decent hold, but he'd buy other banks.

More of a growth story than other banks. Has hung in there better than some other banks. They have the bulk of their activity in Eastern Canada which is a driving force right now. Overall, a good dividend stock. The market has been rewarding them.

They owned three other banks that are larger and more diversified. If he ran a more broader portfolio he would have no problem owning this stock. Having said that you should temper your expectation for the next 5 years as Quebec is their bigger market and it's been the stronger economy in Canada. All banks are now cheap as there are macro concerns in the market that he doesn't share. The group has outperform the TSX in 20 of the last 25 years.

Has been pulling back on the whole sector. Would rather see the dividend north of 4%. Will probably see more price compression, perhaps $5, before you want to get in.

It has over a 4% yield. On a valuation basis, it is not that much cheaper. They have diversified into the energy sector and built their wealth management business. It would not be his first pick in the space.

He thinks their plan to expand in Canada only provides limited opportunities. The Canadian economy is not exactly booming. The other banks are growing outside our country. He would look elsewhere in the Canadian space.

It's different from the big banks, because it's based on Quebec, so it's a play on Quebec where the real estate market is hot and the government has delivered five balanced budgets. NA is good for the long-term.

No reason to sell this. Yield pays 4.2% and it is priced competitively vs. the big banks. The ROE has been creeping up a bit. It's a much better bank than years ago, though they do have a lot of oil exposure that they have scaled back.

(A Top Pick Feb 06/18, Up 3%) It was a value play. He is more excited now about the value of BNS-T and CM-T.

(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Down 2%) Q4 was strong, capping off a great year. They had sector-leading ROE at 18.5%. Still trades at a discount to peers. Earnings will grow 7%, but Canadian debt is a worry. You can buy it now.

Because Canada runs a well-regulated banking oligopoly, he has no doubt that in due time, it will be a 150B company. But it's not worth this now. It's grown up, and is now playing in the big boys sandbox. They've accomplished a lot over the last 10 years. Most importantly, they've improved their ROE, the primary driver of valuation for a bank, and the market has recognized and rewarded this already. Prefers larger, more diversified banks.

(A Top Pick Jan 09/18, Down 6%) Can't control the market. Earnings were up 10% in 2018, dividends were raised twice. You have to own a bank, and this is their preferred one, trading at 9x earnings, grow earnings 6-7% this year. What's not to like?

He thinks NA-T is doing a lot of good things outside of Quebec today. A forgotten sister of the big banks in Canada in an oligopolistic market in Canada. A good company to own.

(A Top Pick Jan 25/18, Down 9%) Banks in general had a rough year. Q4 was very strong for them. Trades at a discount compared to the group. He thinks it is going to grow at 8% annually. Still like it.