Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T)

As the world urbanizes, there's less farmland. This name will benefit as the population grows in the decades ahead. On the cheap side. Missing earnings. Correcting from the Covid runup. Likes the value here and the risk/return. One of his bigger positions.

Large cost advantage due to Canadian base in potash. Big issue is volatility in a cyclical stock because of pricing of potash and nitrogen, which fluctuates a lot. Supply/demand is out of balance all the time. Volatility outweighs the story. Supply coming on globally, especially with BHP.

Close to a bottom, but too early still before an upturn. Swing factor for earnings will be commodity price for potash, and he doesn't see this coming back to sustained supply/demand balance in the medium term. BHP's new production will add ~10% more supply, keeping prices under pressure.

Long term, there's secular growth in the agriculture industry. Less arable land around the world, so farmers need more inputs for the land. Stock's fallen since 2022, 200-day MA has turned, and stock's below that. Commodity prices, such as for corn and soybeans, have fallen; not conducive to farmers spending on crops.

Commodities are super-cyclical, tend to move in 10-year cycles. Watch and wait for the turnaround.

Chart's downtrend has changed with the low being put in, and that's a place for him to hang his hat. Declining arable land around the world forces farmers to be more productive and use inputs. China and India are always looking for a decent supply for food. Yield is 4.3%.

Start your holding now for the next 4-5 years.

He just added more shares. Are still consolidating and have great vertical integration. Valuation is cheap, are buying back shares and are generating free cash flow. Though commodity prices are flat or bottoming, ag remains a good long-term story.

Recent downtrend not good for investors. Doesn't appear to have a bottom on the stock price. Would not invest at this time. Wait for stock to reach bottom. 

At depressed prices you could sell put options at a $60 price if looking to buy the stock below $60. In general the option market is now bigger than the stock market in the U.S. Banks go out and start buying medium and long term call options in depressed names and build their positions.

Long-term horizon. Very few providers. You're basing your investment decision on, in very simple terms, whether farmers are going to be using the product or not. If you get a year where there's no demand, you have to wait another year.

Supply/demand can swing wildly, as with any commodity. Too volatile for him, like catching a falling knife.

We don't know what's going to happen to potash production in Russia or Belarus. Don't know what the weather's going to be next year, or corn or soy prices. He doesn't want to buy something that depends on all those things.

The narrative of "you have to feed the world" is a great story. When he entered the business, there was a big call on Massey Ferguson. Massey went bankrupt. The story just doesn't work as a business.

Stays away when a fluctuating commodity price will impact earnings too much. Yet she owns this one. Half of its business is agricultural retail, which supports the dividend. This segment will increase with global population growth. 

Potash prices are stabilizing, without either positive or negative catalysts on the horizon. Not a bad entry point. Yield is 4.5%.

She sold it. Shares now are where they were when they merged. She misjudged the cyclicality of the fertilizer industry. Prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine, but farmers cut back spending on fertilizer because of the high price, so prices have collapsed. Also, BHP will produce a lot of potash in years to come.

Doesn't own, but watches. Recently beat on EPS. Concerning miss on Q2 revenue. Under pressure over last 3 years, despite rallies. Downward trend. Risk/reward just not there. Analysts see 24% upside, but she'd wait to see a turnaround.

Well diversified, but too volatile for her.

The simple answer is to own it when the price of corn's going up, don't own it when corn price goes down. Rumour is that farm cycle's doing down because volumes have been good, bumper crop.

Complex company in a complex situation. Well run. Potash drives everything, and now prices are lower. Low-cost operator BHP is coming in, and that's the unknown. It'll cause price pressure. He wouldn't go there.