Nutrien Ltd.

She'd buy it now. Last year was disappointing for potash pricing, and the trade war also hurt NTR. The signing of the US-China trade deal, phase one, should benefit US farmers and NTR. The bad news is in the stock already. NTR's retail operations in America and Australia are performing well and are stable--she likes them. Will build retail in Brazil, too. NTR generates a lot of free cash flow after the Potash merger a few years ago to buyback shares, invest in retail and raise the dividend. Pays a 3.7% yield. Didn't rally with the market last year, but will have a better 2020.

Reminds him of MFC of a few years ago--can't get out of its own way. There's potash oversupply. Weak global demand. NTR missed Q3 and lowered guidance. Suffered their worst-ever weather in 2019. Then there's the trade war. The bull argument is that NTR hasn't been this cheap in a long time, trading at 15x 2020; its retail EBITDA were up sharply last quarter. He feels potash woes will pass soon and NTR's EPS will rise 36% this year. NTR is buying back their shares and boast a strong dividend. This is a contrarian call.

It's been riding a falling balance sheet. Earnings look good at $3.99/share. The concern is that earnings have been sliding off. The company is trading at a discount to book. He doesn't see a driver that would push the stock forward.

(A Top Pick Jan 15/19, Down 5%) It has been a tough year for farmers. It was one of the poorest planting seasons on record. See his Top Picks.

He thinks this is one of Canada's few global franchises with a global brand out there. They just purchased another agriculture business in Brazil. The dividend is over 4% at these levels. The long term fundamentals are great. (Analysts’ price target is $79.52)

(A Top Pick Jan 03/19, Up 4%) He holds it as he believes farmers will continue to play catch up on plantings. Yield 4%

The China/US trade situation is the main thing. In the 2021 crop year the farmers will have cash again to go and buy their products.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Up 8%) Results were muted as the spring was wet for planting. Fall saw early snow and slowed demand. The thesis still stands, pricing will increase for potash and nutrients.

Target price and the bottom? Don't look at this short-term. NTR is very well-positioned. The dividend is safe. Assets are in Canada, which is fine to be. A great dividend stock. Buy this when things don't look great.

Seasonal play? This is an attractive entry point -- at $62. She owns it presently. They are the largest potash producer and although potash prices have fallen, the company has curtailed some production for the time being. She likes how they are growing their distribution sales network. They are going to reinvest growing cash flow into their network.

It has been under pressure from tax loss selling. Fall weather has been a headwind as well for their commodity sales. He sees a rebound of 38% earnings growth next year, cheap when it is trading closer to 25 times earnings. They are also doing a share buyback right now. (Analysts’ price target is $79.73)

He's watching it, deciding when to step in. He likes agriculture stocks. Fertilizer demand has been weak due to poor weather in the US. NTR has increased share buybacks to support the stock. Pays a dividend below 3%. It has an undecided valuation; who can guess the weather in 2020? Their retail side is merely okay. If this declines 10-20%, he might buy.

The company has had a tough year -- China, weather, commodity weakness. If you have a two year time horizon, you will do fine. To get it back into a growth trajectory again it will take that long.

(A Top Pick Jan 15/19, Up 0.3%) It has been a terrible year for farmers. It is a testament to their business model how stable the stock is. This is one of the only Canadian players that is on a global stage.