Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T)

It saw its present level back in June and it is back at its 2020 levels. The mid $160's to low $170's is a good entry point. There is probably downside ahead for nitrogen and potash.

The most cyclical stock he owns. Crop prices have been all over the place. Harvest has been spotty. Tailwinds include continued geopolitical conflict between Russia-Ukraine, cheaper nat gas in NA. Demand will eventually return. Add at a reasonable price, sit and wait, and be patient.

Was hoping stock would rally, but shares have not behaved accordingly. Fundamentally still a solid company. Will remain a shareholder until future of company is more clear. 

Likes it. Valuation is really cheap, around 7x operating cash flow, buying back stock and balance sheet is fine. Are vertically integrated well. Are the go-to name in this sector. Would add shares.

NTR is now trading at 11.2x times' Forward P/E. In the 3Q, NTR’s revenue declined by -31% to $5.37B, missing estimates of $5.74B and EPS was $0.35 missing estimates of $0.65. The balance sheet has a net debt of $14.4B and a net debt/EBITDA is currently at 2.1x, okay for a cyclical name. NTR continues to return capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. The result was not strong, but given the strong market recently, it does help the share price to stabilize. Also, the expectations have gone down significantly, and comparison periods will get easier going forward. P/E is attractive at 11X. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Seasonally, fertilizer stocks do well now September to November, because cash flow hits the farmers and then they spend on fertilizer. But, this is not happening with NTR now. The chart keeps sinking. He likes the ag sector, but this chart doesn't call to him.

Owns shares in company. Volatility due to conflict in Ukraine. Exports out of Europe still going ahead. Demand for products very strong. Global population growth will support business model. Recent share price a good place to buy. 

Apprehension is that it's going to whip around quite a bit. Likes what they do. Big overhang is what BHP is going to do with Jansen going ahead. If your heart is set, wait for weakness.

He's traded this, and just rebought it a few months ago. If it holds the last low of $75, he will continue adding shares.

He sold this a few months ago. Remains unsure of the outcome and impact of the Russian-Ukraine war and the movement of Ukrainian war, such as the Russia bombing of the Odessa grain port. (His family comes from Odessa.)

Peak earnings in 2022, down since then, though this may not disrupt cadence of dividend growth since it's well capitalized. Dividend may grow more modestly but with a higher payout ratio. Still more downside risk with downslope of commodity cycle. Quality company.

He has added more with the pullback. It has exposure to other fertilizers besides potash. Headwinds from the springtime are lessening and fertilizer demand is good for the long term.

Each time he has traded this, he's made money. Loves the chart now, trying to break its downtrend and trying to breakout after a period of consolidating. If it breaks out, there's so much room ahead. If it breaks down, he'll sell.

Share prices down lately.
Fertilizer prices down.
Has been buying shares.
Good long term investment.
Demand for product is strong and robust.
Well run company.

It peaked early 2022 at $140 when the Russian war started, but has fallen to $80. Earnings disappointed and guidance was lowered. We've seen the bottom in this. It's the major player in fertilizer, is vertically integrated and offers good long-term growth. The falling US dollar helps. Also, they're buying back shares and generating lots of free cash.