Nutrien Ltd.

NTR-T

(A Top Pick Oct 10/18, Down 5%) It's been a volatile year due to weather and trade war tensions, with US soy bean farmers exporting less to China. But NTR is cutting back on some of their potash mines to get demand-supply back in place. That said, NTR generates a lot of free cash flow and increasing their 3.7% dividend, so you're paid to wait. They're also building out their retail network, which is less cyclical. Still likes it.

(A Top Pick Sep 25/18, Down 10%) It is a great company but we had a terrible spring in North America so inventories build up. Long term he thinks it is great.

Seasonality? Seasonality is now. It has support at $65, so bouncing off support would be good. Wait until that bounce happens.

It is a commodity company. There is no scarcity in potash. Commodity companies don't control their own risk. He has less than 5% of his holdings in Commodities.

(A Top Pick Oct 30/18, Up 5%) It is disappointing they announced cutbacks in potash production to deal with inventories. When it gets going, it will hit $80, but it may take a little while. People have to eat -- fertilizers will never go out of fashion.

Pays a good 3.5% yield. 60% of profits come from agricultural production and 40% from retail distribution to farmers. After their merger, they've been streamlining operations. Trades at 10x cash flow. Expect good earnings growth and multiple expansion over time. Their retail business gives them stability and makes the yield safe. (Analysts’ price target is $83.06)

(A Top Pick Sep 11/18, Down 5%) Need a longer term perspective. Temporarily idling potash mines. Still quite positive on the outlook. Generating a lot of free cash flow, synergies from the merger. Doesn't need strong commodity price to grow cash flow and earnings. Increasing dividend and buying back stock. Looking to increase share in the US.

(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 5%) US dollar and trade issues have been headwinds for all commodities. Generates cash flow, more stable.

They are a victim of circumstances. They serve a farming community. Plantings were very late this year. Crops in Ontario don't look very good. Disposable income is what Nutrien banks on. NTR-T serves its market extremely well. There is no rush to buy it, however. You have to wait until next spring.

He still has not made a decision on it. It has not done much since he was on last. In a recession it will probably get hit like any other stock. He is not ready to step in. We may get an opportunity to get in at a cheaper price.

Time for an initial position? The spring was a disaster for planting due to the weather. The stock has done well considering this. He would not have a problem buying here. The company is doing all things right.

She does own this one and the recent pullback offers a good buy in point now. They are generating new synergies and cash flow from the potash and retail operations. The dividend yield is attractive. There was a very delayed planting season in the US, so crop yields will have to be watched going forward. Yield 3.7%

Decent numbers, but flat. Trading between two breakpoints, $62 and $78. Reasonable value here, but stick with those two parameters.

He's shorting, because of its valuation. They have mid-range price momentum, and volatility is OK. But they trade at 22x earnings and missed a recent quarter. Weak valuation that needs to improve.