Genworth MI Canada Inc.

MIC-T

Analysis and Opinions about MIC-T

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Opinion
Expert
WATCH
WATCH
October 24, 2019
He was a shareholder when they announced their dividend cut last year. They had a hiccup when they tried to re-purpose storage tanks. The dividend is more sustainable than it was before. With the transition underway they have converted a number of storage terminals. Their aviation services business is a much more stable business and is growing and is more cash flow generating. Today he thinks the company looks a lot better but is in the penalty box because of last year. They need a few good quarters.
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He was a shareholder when they announced their dividend cut last year. They had a hiccup when they tried to re-purpose storage tanks. The dividend is more sustainable than it was before. With the transition underway they have converted a number of storage terminals. Their aviation services business is a much more stable business and is growing and is more cash flow generating. Today he thinks the company looks a lot better but is in the penalty box because of last year. They need a few good quarters.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 4, 2019
It has a US parent and they want to deleverage their balance sheet. CMHC is the biggest in their space. Some banks like to give some of their business to Genworth. He does not know if the US parent will sell to the Canadian public. Holders should consult with a financial advisor as to whether to sell or move on.
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It has a US parent and they want to deleverage their balance sheet. CMHC is the biggest in their space. Some banks like to give some of their business to Genworth. He does not know if the US parent will sell to the Canadian public. Holders should consult with a financial advisor as to whether to sell or move on.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 17, 2018

(A Top Pick Jun 28/17, Up 30%) This is the non-bank financial that he likes a lot. They do not insure high risk mortgages and this was an issue with Home Capital and it caused the stock to sell off at the time he recommended this one. It is still cheap overall with a PE of 9 times. It has a solid balance sheet, and he still likes it. The concerns that kept it cheap are now behind them.

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(A Top Pick Jun 28/17, Up 30%) This is the non-bank financial that he likes a lot. They do not insure high risk mortgages and this was an issue with Home Capital and it caused the stock to sell off at the time he recommended this one. It is still cheap overall with a PE of 9 times. It has a solid balance sheet, and he still likes it. The concerns that kept it cheap are now behind them.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 28, 2017

There has been a cloud over anybody in the mortgage business. This one is a little different. They are a mortgage reinsurer, but they don’t insure Alt A or subprime mortgages. They also have the ability to push back an underwriter if there was fraud. Trades at 6.4X Price to Free Cash Flow with a double-digit return on equity and 8X PE. Dividend yield of 5%. (Analysts’ price target is $37.50.)

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There has been a cloud over anybody in the mortgage business. This one is a little different. They are a mortgage reinsurer, but they don’t insure Alt A or subprime mortgages. They also have the ability to push back an underwriter if there was fraud. Trades at 6.4X Price to Free Cash Flow with a double-digit return on equity and 8X PE. Dividend yield of 5%. (Analysts’ price target is $37.50.)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 8, 2017

It has been pounded down along with everything else. You are playing that the real estate market is not going to collapse. See Top Picks.

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It has been pounded down along with everything else. You are playing that the real estate market is not going to collapse. See Top Picks.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 5, 2017

This is in a bit of a tug-of-war. CHMC has always been the dominant incumbent mortgage insurer. Given political concerns about elevated risks on housing, the government has been trying to offload some of their balance sheet risks and limiting mortgages, and that has accrued to the benefit of companies like this. It has a reasonably strong credit and bonds are BBB rated. The stock is trading below BV. A respectable yield. This is too fraught with risk for him to get all that enthusiastic at this stage.

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This is in a bit of a tug-of-war. CHMC has always been the dominant incumbent mortgage insurer. Given political concerns about elevated risks on housing, the government has been trying to offload some of their balance sheet risks and limiting mortgages, and that has accrued to the benefit of companies like this. It has a reasonably strong credit and bonds are BBB rated. The stock is trading below BV. A respectable yield. This is too fraught with risk for him to get all that enthusiastic at this stage.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 10, 2016

They just reported, and increased their dividend significantly again. The share price drop kind of puzzled him. It may have been a bit of an indictment, with the federal government and regulators saying that they were worried about the Canadian mortgage market. People may have sold down their shares on that news. Feels there will be a slowdown in Canadian housing, which will slow down the number of mortgages written, and thus the number of mortgages insured. The share price could go down further, and this is a company he would be looking at. Dividend yield of 5.8%.

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They just reported, and increased their dividend significantly again. The share price drop kind of puzzled him. It may have been a bit of an indictment, with the federal government and regulators saying that they were worried about the Canadian mortgage market. People may have sold down their shares on that news. Feels there will be a slowdown in Canadian housing, which will slow down the number of mortgages written, and thus the number of mortgages insured. The share price could go down further, and this is a company he would be looking at. Dividend yield of 5.8%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 31, 2016

He bought it after the change in mortgage rules. They are the second largest provider of mortgage insurance. He thinks there will be no housing bubble crash. The risk reward for the 6% dividend yield is much more to the upside. They will be fine if employment in Canada does not go down.

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He bought it after the change in mortgage rules. They are the second largest provider of mortgage insurance. He thinks there will be no housing bubble crash. The risk reward for the 6% dividend yield is much more to the upside. They will be fine if employment in Canada does not go down.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 4, 2016

The largest independent mortgage insurance provider. The stock had a big drop today. Part of the concern of the street is that Ottawa is asking some of the lenders to bear part of the risk, particularly on certain mortgage sizes. He has not been particularly interested in this name.

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The largest independent mortgage insurance provider. The stock had a big drop today. Part of the concern of the street is that Ottawa is asking some of the lenders to bear part of the risk, particularly on certain mortgage sizes. He has not been particularly interested in this name.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 18, 2016

A value stock, but that has been the case for many years, and has been somewhat of a value trap despite management’s decent execution. This is not a growth business anymore. If you are concerned about Canadian real estate, this is definitely a name to be concerned about. As well, they have exposure to Western Canada, and how that is going to impact their results. 5.1% dividend yield should be safe.

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A value stock, but that has been the case for many years, and has been somewhat of a value trap despite management’s decent execution. This is not a growth business anymore. If you are concerned about Canadian real estate, this is definitely a name to be concerned about. As well, they have exposure to Western Canada, and how that is going to impact their results. 5.1% dividend yield should be safe.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 15, 2015

A default mortgage insurance broker. The chart on this shows lower highs and forming a descending triangle. It is now breaking below this pattern, which is actually bearish because it has broken support. If you are betting on this, you are betting on the housing market in Canada as being strong. There are a lot of questions around that right now.

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A default mortgage insurance broker. The chart on this shows lower highs and forming a descending triangle. It is now breaking below this pattern, which is actually bearish because it has broken support. If you are betting on this, you are betting on the housing market in Canada as being strong. There are a lot of questions around that right now.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 24, 2015

Default mortgage insurance providers. Likes the dividend yield of 5.66%. Cheap on a PE basis at about 8X. Also, trading below BV. There is a large Short position on this, which could result in a very nice upside as the Shorts are focusing too much on the valuation of the housing market. There are definitely pockets in Toronto and Vancouver, but doesn’t feel this is a problem for this company.

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Default mortgage insurance providers. Likes the dividend yield of 5.66%. Cheap on a PE basis at about 8X. Also, trading below BV. There is a large Short position on this, which could result in a very nice upside as the Shorts are focusing too much on the valuation of the housing market. There are definitely pockets in Toronto and Vancouver, but doesn’t feel this is a problem for this company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 25, 2015

If the housing market got really bad (dropped 20-30%) here this company would go to zero. This is unlikely, however. This is a very binary type of situation. It is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer.

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If the housing market got really bad (dropped 20-30%) here this company would go to zero. This is unlikely, however. This is a very binary type of situation. It is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 20, 2014

Would be really cautious on this. Had a very good run. The story has been leveraged on the government’s CMHC program clawing back and allowing them to really prosper, which he thinks it can do. But, at the end of the day, you’re taking consumer credit risks. From the macro numbers he sees, that gives him pause. Also, it is a little on the expensive side.

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Would be really cautious on this. Had a very good run. The story has been leveraged on the government’s CMHC program clawing back and allowing them to really prosper, which he thinks it can do. But, at the end of the day, you’re taking consumer credit risks. From the macro numbers he sees, that gives him pause. Also, it is a little on the expensive side.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 5, 2014

This tends to increase dividends in the 3rd quarter, so you should look for one in August. Anything related to the mortgage business is tied to interest rates. Although interest rates have come off currently, he believes their ultimate direction is up. That will put pressure on anybody who is related to that business. He would be little bit cautious. Prefers Canadian banks.

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This tends to increase dividends in the 3rd quarter, so you should look for one in August. Anything related to the mortgage business is tied to interest rates. Although interest rates have come off currently, he believes their ultimate direction is up. That will put pressure on anybody who is related to that business. He would be little bit cautious. Prefers Canadian banks.

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