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Stock Opinions by John Kim

COMMENT
Market Outlook He expects the global economies will begin to slow down. Europe posted the weakest PMI it has seen in almost a decade. With interest rates so low, equities have been the place where investors have taken their money. Trade tensions with China are being reflected with the Chinese economy slowing as well now. Both sides have backed themselves into a corner -- it is unlikely a solution will be created before 2020, he thinks. He gives credit to President Trump for stepping up against China taking intellectual theft. He thinks the US Fed did not actually need to cut rates as this takes away the ability to do so later. The stock market will come under pressure when the Fed sends signals it will no longer drop rates.
Unknown
COMMENT
They are rationalizing the management structure given their debt after acquiring Raging River. They are trying to get more into light oil. A recession would cause oil prices to fall and with it the stock price.
oil / gas
WATCH
They got a reprieve when there was a large shareholder who injected cash. The engineering world is still going through some strife and of course there is the political issues around them. He would wait and see what the litigation will hold.
contractors
DON'T BUY
He is looking at Fairfax India, where there is better value. There is better places to go he feels than FFH-T. They have been pressured by recent interest rate moves.
insurance
COMMENT
REITs & utilities instead of bonds? If you are doing it for income and don't worry about volatility then REITs and utilities are a good way to go -- they have more tax efficiency and better yields. If capital preservation is more important, then holding bonds makes sense.
Unknown
HOLD
It is highly diversified with capital markets and branching out into the US. They will keep raising the dividend and you can expect a high single-digit total return each year.
banks
HOLD

He is actually looking closely at this as being comparable to Visa and Mastercard. He likes their XOOM money-transfer business that could compete against Western Union and the banks that charge much higher transaction rates.

0
BUY on WEAKNESS
They should do well long-term. They continue to raise money for their funds in real estate -- the latest was $20 billion to buy DreamGlobal. You probably want to wait for a better entry point. Yield 3.5%
investment companies / funds
HOLD
There is much controversary around their vaping business. Smoking used to be on the rise in the developing world, but that may be plateauing as well. The dividend is likely safe. You won't make a 10% return per year, but a good holding.
tobacco
HOLD
Cheaper than peers? It trades at a discount to its peers as there has been no new product development for them. This will change at year end into 2020. At some point it will catch up in value. There has been an overhang as to whether the largest shareholder would hold or sell their shares. That is done now. They have just bought into a regulated Colombian infrastructure play to get stability of revenues. Yield 4.7%
Utilities
HOLD
If the economy slows, their revenues will drop. They are a high valuation right now. Over the long term it will be okay, but you will not receive a giant return -- more of a grind out story.
Transportation
WAIT
He use to to own them but sold earlier this year. The bus segment is eroding and new competitor from Europe is entering. Bus service is shrinking regionally. Transit is their area of growth and it is declining there as well. He would wait.
Automotive
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 09/19, Up 6%) It also benefits on the insurance side. The integration with the pharma side has gone well. Earnings are expected at $7 per share and if it trades at 10 times earnings, it will be a $70 stock.
specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 09/19, Down 10%) They had an earnings call where they missed guidance and dropped their expectations. Asia-Pac economic slowing was to blame. However, there is only a handful of global shipping companies and this is on sale right now -- a rare opportunity.
Transportation
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 09/19, Up 6%) There have been some management changes and the stock is slowly reacting positively. He still sees upside from here. Yield 5.5%
investment companies / funds
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