CSX Corp (CSX-Q)

Really likes the rails, a cyclical group. CN, CP, CSX trade as a team. Transport is doing quite well, and the rails have a lot of leverage in their business models. Done a great job managing operating expenses.

He owns CNR-T over CP-T and CSX-Q in the US. CP-T is more grain and resource orientated -- East to West. CNR-T has more exposure to the US markets. He would hold if you own and wait for a pullback to buy more.

The CEO passed away. The railroad industry is bullish at the moment. Truckers are not allowed to drive 40 hours now. Trucking is becoming more expensive. Railroads are getting more market share and they continue to get more efficient. (Analysts’ price target is $81.09)

The rails have been on a spectacular run in this cycle. This one started down at its book value and now is close to 5 times book value. The best days are behind it. If the economy ever has a setback this stock could go down substantially.

Rails in general are benefiting from strong economy in North America, especially the US. All these companies have become more efficient, infrastructure plays. Trade wars are a risk. Generally, the rails are a good way to play North American economy.

They are continuing the plan that Hunter Harrison put in place to improve efficiency, drive down the operating ratio, and sell assets. Velocity is up 20% this year: trains are moving faster, which provides better service and increases capacity. CSX is improving its capital profile, with higher cash flow margins. He expects every dollar of revenue to convert to about 30 cents in the future from a historical level of 8 cents. There have been complaints from the customer (shipper) base as a result of all the cost cutting but if CSX keeps improving its operating metrics, the customers’ concerns will be resolved. (Analysts’ price target is 62.92$)

(A Top Pick Jan 27/17. Up 20.1%.) There was a big upside when Hunter Harrison joined the firm. The secular story is really one of taking costs out of the company and making it more efficient. He expects the story to continue, and for the stock to continue to grind higher.