Canadian Pacific Rail (CP-T)

In the spotlight recently because trade wars and tariffs could impact the volumes being taken to the US by quite a bit. Lower ROE than CNR, but cheaper. Prefers CP to CNR, as its merger with Kansas City has opened up a whole new area.

It is going pretty well and there it is basically a duopoly. Protectionism and domestication is good for transportation including railways and trucking. The multiple is a little high but it is a solid blue chip.

Not worried about issues in Mexico. Very strong company with legacy assets that impossible to replicate. Stock price not cheap, would have to hold for a long time (buy on share price weakness). Over the long term - company will do well. Earnings expected to slowly rise. 

Management's done an excellent job. Hopefully the Kansas City deal will show material earnings growth. Kept guidance for 2025 quite high, though this year has been disappointing due to strikes and weather. Tough business with lots of capital expenditures, unions, weather. 

Avoiding for now. Valuation too stretched for him. On a material pullback, may look to get in. Used to own CNR, but probably should have bought this one instead.

Rail is the most efficient way to ship freight. In this higher inflationary environment he'd prefer a rail, and CP is his preference. Wide moat, massive cost advantages to choosing this method of transport, tough to replace.

Buy half right now, and wait to see what happens over the next month. Nothing in the chart gives him any pause. Earnings and other data this week might cause some froth, but it's in the ballpark.

Has gone sideways against the market since mid-April, and down since September. Weakness longer term, but he wouldn't make too much of that.

Excellent proxy on the state of economy. Company will benefit from strength in North America. Very good assets with legacy attributes. Hard to replicate as not possible to build new railroads. Would recommend holding for the long term. Current share price is reasonable - good for long term investors. 

It trades at 22x forward PE in a slowing economy. Also, the new labour contract is an overhang. He owns no rails, though he liked CP's KC merger, but you're paying for that now. He prefers Alphabet trading at the same 22x.

Has been watching lately. Does not own right now. Is a blue chip stock, but can be volatile. If trend heads upwards, would recommend buying. 

His preference due to the recent acquisition of Kansas City. Still has synergies to go, better offerings for customers. High barriers to entry. Trades at a higher premium to CNR, which just pulled back on earnings.

Really likes it and its acquisition, gives it a stronger position than competitors. Now the only company with a complete rail network between Mexico and Canada, making it a terrific investment. Very strong run for next 5 years. Prefers it to CNR.

This is another example of an oligarchy. He holds CN and not CP because its price is elevated compared to CN. There are some issues lately with labour for both railways. However railways are a good long term holding since we need them to move products across North America and they are cheaper than trucking.

Car loads were up 2% in Q2 YOY. He owns neither Canadian rail. Perhaps there are more goods being moved to anticipate Trump imposing tariffs if he wins. The rails will be stagnant for a while.

TFII is up 17% YTD, so not much of a pullback. On a YTD basis, outperforming the railroads. He likes both those businesses. Canada has good geography for trucking and infrastructure. 

CNR is the laggard. CP is doing nicely. He still regrets not switching from CNR to CP. 

Growth significantly driven by increased industrial activity, near-shoring is increasing demand. Benefited from higher US shipments, offsetting lower Canadian grain and coal volumes. This just reflects the stronger US economy. Strong growth in coming years. 27x is a bit expensive, but growth is higher too. Potential 11% upside from here.