Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK-N)

This week, the market nearly broke below all key support levels, including the XLK (tech index). It looks very negative now, showing a sell signal. Inskip fears XLK could fall to $225, the next floor of support and the 26-week moving average. Bearish.

Sector is performing well. Small pullback from October to November, which is good as it sets up a rally. Tech starts to perform well at this time of year into January, seeing some momentum, can do well for the next few months. Rising bottoms, a very positive pattern. Breaking out from the previous level. That all shows an ascending triangle.

A tech ETF and a good way to play tech. This has done well this year. With earnings now, this could do even better. We're entering strong seasonality for tech which could boost the wider market. Keep an eye on Apple's earnings on Thursday. Tech is good, at least short term.

The tech sector is trading at 28x forward PE, back to the pre-Covid peak. Tech trades at a 45% premium to the overall market while the 10-year average is 9% premium. During the tech bubble it was a 53% premium. He gets the AI enthusiasm, but doesn't understand the tech disconnect from higher rates. The Fed has said it will increase rates. Tech stocks are expensive. Tech outflows have been the highest in the past 10 weeks. We'll test 4,200 on the S&P and could run further if it breaks above that. If it doesn't, we'll see.

QQQ vs XLK? XLK has a large position in MSFT and AAPL, whereas the QQQ is more diversified. To broaden the exposure he might add KWEB that adds exposure into the Asian marketplace, including BABA. He thinks these holdings will continue to crush things.

In late-2018, FB kicked off the selling in FANGs. He was happy about that--he picked up cheap stocks. XLK has done very well for him and he's long held it.