Microsoft Corp (MSFT-Q)

Fared very well during the downturn and reported great numbers last week. Very positive on it, based on the generative AI trend. Growing cloud business well. 365 Copilot gaining traction. Expected to grow 15% top and bottom lines. Not cheap at 28x.

He has been buying tech during this dip, in April particularly. We will eventually exit this volatility and find stability and confidence in the market again. Meta and Microsoft are some of his key holdings, and they affirmed their capex guidance--they are spending to make incredible investments over the next three years, because they know AI is the biggest super-cycle every in technology. There is incredible pent-up demand for AI from businesses and consumers. The CEO of MSFT reported that his company processed 50 trillion tokens last month alone, or 3.5 million years of AI conversation. 

They reported a strong beat after the bell: 19% YOY EPS growth and 15% YOY revenue growth in a top and bottom line beat. Also, all three segments beat expectations, including intelligent cloud and Azure. Excellent results. Markets will rally tomorrow.

Alphabet's report and positive news on the cloud is probably a good thing for MSFT who will report this week.

A month ago, he reduced his tech holdings a lot. Thirst for AI continues pretty strong. Economic environment would have to be pretty tough for this name to go down too much more, but that could happen.

Both names are great. MSFT is a bit more expensive. META can suffer more on advertising if we go into a tougher economic environment. If you're confident that Trump wants to win the midterms and wants to be popular, and that we're going to avoid the worst-case outcome, you can buy both at these levels. Between the two, META gets the nod.

They report Wednesday. They've disappointed 3 straight quarters, with soft outlooks after delivering solid results. Co-Pilot needs to gain serious traction while data centre spending stays strong, but not too strong, and hopes that Azure resumes acceleration. If it misses once more, this will be punished.

Fundamental resilience is near the top of the Mag 7 pack. Sticky, mission-critical services. Fell on generalized market weakness. Continues to grow at compelling mid-high teens pace. Flexing pricing power with subscription renewals. Cloud business still growing, but at a decelerated pace. Own for the long haul.

Has a durable business with Office software essential in the workplace. Their large cloud business adds to overall growth. Is -24% from highs, the best among the Mag 7 during this tariff war. However, its CoPilot isn't successful and they are breaking up with Open AI. At 27x PE, you can buy some shares now.

Shares are back to July 2024. Will this be closer to $300 or $500? The easy answer is $500. $300 would mean a lot of fundamental concerns on the macro side of the market. Look for guidance ahead. Are they still on schedule to spend $13 billion this year? And what will they get in return for that? Their last Q4 revealed that their AI business surprisingly surpassed their revenue run rate of $13 billion, which was a lot sooner. Companies like this are spending alot, but they are making money back in AI.

Its AI platform isn't that impressive, and MSFT has missed estimates 3 times now. It will stay a dog if it misses again.

People are taking profits in the Mag 7. Still a top pick. AI-cloud dominance and smart investments are driving their growth. Financial strength keeps them steady in uncertain markets. Her price target is $480, another 25% upside. You could add to your position now.

MSFT is phasing out Windows 10 and pushing the 11 upgrade.