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Tyler Mordy
President & CIO at Forstrong Global Asset Management
Member since: Jul '16 · 284 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.14 | 29 20.14% | 34 23.61% | 31 21.53% | 31 21.53% | 19 13.19% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.45 | 3 8.82% | 10 29.41% | 15 44.12% | 5 14.71% | 1 2.94% | |
| 6 Months | 2.19 | 6 17.65% | 6 17.65% | 8 23.53% | 8 23.53% | 6 17.65% | |
| 12 Months | 3.46 | 6 17.14% | 12 34.29% | 2 5.71% | 9 25.71% | 6 17.14% | |
| 2 Years | 3.47 | 9 29.03% | 6 19.35% | 6 19.35% | 7 22.58% | 3 9.68% | |
| 5 Years | 0 | 5 50.00% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 2 20.00% | 3 30.00% |
Stock Opinions by Tyler Mordy
COMMENT
Government support is a lasting legacy from the pandemic. We're moving from a period of low growth, low inflation after 2008 to an economic, cyclical reset. With the first, monetary stimulus bore the brunt of supporting the recovery. This time around, the lever of fiscal stimulus was swiftly engaged. He looks at the macro picture, and decides on investments from there. The most important thing right now is they've shifted client portfolios to focus on reflationary themes, and these should continue for quite some time.
Unknown
N/A
Unknown
COMMENT
A portfolio based on reflation. In the post-2008 banking crisis, USD stayed strong, US equities outperformed, growth stocks such as technology outperformed. These were big trends that have exhausted their lifelines here. Covid wasn't a classic recession with a long workout period. Instead, we had barely a bear market at all. In the period ahead, we can get higher growth and higher inflation. So, the USD should be chronically weak, growth stocks should underperform, and value and international markets should outperform the US. Last month was a bit of a countertrend rally, but these reflationary themes have years to last. Look to things that do well, commodities included, when global growth is higher.
Unknown
HOLD
Great. A core holding. Low cost, pure beta play. Bullish on EM. They've underperformed for the last 11 years, and they're set for a long period of outperformance. The issue is that it's still 40% tech, and he's moving away from tech. Look at DEM instead, as it overweights EM companies that have higher dividends and a higher quality tilt. DEM is diversified, with a yield of about 4.5%, PE ratio of around 10.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
Bullish on EM, which has underperformed for the last 11 years and is set for a long period of outperformance. Overweights EM companies that have higher dividends and a higher quality tilt. Diversified, with a yield of about 4.5%, PE ratio of around 10.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
Good momentum. Basket of commercial, residential, storage, and so on. Issue is the expensive valuation. Another way to play it is to look at the US homebuilders, such as ITB, his preference, which also has a home renovation component. Supply/demand dynamics speak to years and years of home building.
DON'T BUY
A play on folks working from home, circumventing some of the issues in the commercial sector. Another way to play it is to look at the US homebuilders, such as ITB, his preference, which also has a home renovation component. Supply/demand dynamics speak to years and years of home building.
BUY
His preference among the US homebuilders, and which also has a home renovation component. Supply/demand dynamics speak to years and years of home building.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
REIT distributions less attractive with higher interest rates? There is interest rate risk. Bonds are pretty much dead money, but yields will rise over the coming years. Definitely a headwind. Utilities, preferred shares, REITs are in that camp. Interest rate sensitives are difficult, and you have to be really cautious. REITs are an interesting space, but 3-5 years out the returns will be subpar.
Unknown
BUY
European banks present the biggest value opportunities out there. They've been left for dead. Stress tests have made them extremely conservative. Trading below book value, enormous dividend yields. Short term is anybody's guess, but you should be happy 1-2-3 years out. Long term, tactical holding.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
European bank dividends. The market's become so demoralized about European bank dividends, they have low expectations. As a macro investor, he looks at the behavioural side of things and that's exactly when you want to invest. Dividends were restricted last year, but those are being lifted now. Buy backs will resume and dividends will be solid. One of those beat up value plays that will be swept up in the global recovery.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
You have to be aware of the sector exposure. In overweight, high dividend ETFs, energy exposure doubles to almost 30%. If it's a standalone ETF for your retirement account, you probably want to be more diversified than that. But if it's one component of your portfolio, it's a good holding. An alternative is SDIV, which opens up the world of high dividends to you. SDIV is his preference as a one-stop shop for retirement, as it's more globally diversified without the cyclicality of the energy sector.
BUY
Opens up the world of high dividends to you. SDIV is his preference as a one-stop shop for retirement, as it's more globally diversified without the cyclicality of the energy sector.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 03/20, Up 37%) One of the Covid winners. He's reduced exposure now, no longer a bang the table buy, though it will do OK. He'd look for more sectors that are growth or commodity oriented.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 03/20, Up 29%) Large sector ETF. Did well. As the economy opens up, he prefers sectors like banks, utilities, etc.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 03/20, Up 15%) China's tightening phase seems to be over. Indicates they'll be easing policy in the future. China's market is very policy driven, which is different from the bottom-up earnings drivers of global markets. So this lets you get great non-correlation in your portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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