Cameco Corporation

CCO-T

Uranium prices and operational issues are creating headwinds. The government of Kazakhstan has been boosting production to raise money and this is hurting their bottom line. He has no interest here. Remember, just because it is cheap it is not a reason to buy -- you need a real catalyst to confirm things are changing.

2018-early-2019 saw a good uptrend, then has seen a downtrend. But take a stab at current $11-12 levels. This is a trade, not a long-term hold.

Uranium A few years ago, he thought uranium would be THE source of energy, but then Fukushima happened. This sector is challenging, though still tradeable. Cameco's chart is now building a base. Trade the range if you are long-term, if you are hopeful about this sector, but trading on hope is a weak strategy.

They've tried to pull back production. Whole industry is doing the same to try to boost the price. Price now gives you a very interesting risk/reward. Once the market tightens, stock has a lot of upside, but you need to be patient. Not much of a dividend. Small weighting of 1-2%.

It's traded sideways for five years, because uranium prices have been flat. However, China is building many nuclear reactors, so this should rise. Buy and hold long-term.

Really tough commodity to have. Not sure why you'd want to. If you really want to own a commodity, look at iron ore or copper. You want to be in those commodities where supply is shrinking.

A unique story. Closed their mine to buy on the spot market to deliver into their contracts. Cleaned up inventory. Given time, they hope to move the spot market. Yield is 0.58%. (Analysts’ price target is $17.73)

This is a tricky one. Nuclear is a grey area because it is a low carbon energy. Environmentalists are up in arms about nuclear waste. From a financial point he finds plants are very expensive and often go over budget and lock us into an infrastructure for 60 years. You can't generate the energy near where it is consumed so you have high infrastructure costs for transmission. He also does not like commodities. He thinks renewable energy may out-compete nuclear. As batteries get cheaper, renewable gets cheaper than nuclear and transmission lines. This company is excluded from a lot of socially responsible definitions.

Strong seasonality for uranium stocks at the end of the year. He's been watching CCO, but it weakens whenever he wants to recommend it. $12 is a level to watch.

He would be careful as a number of their properties are currently shut down. Uranium is one of the hardest metals to predict, because there are so many politics wrapped around the metal. He would not be investing here.

The uranium sector. He's watching Cameco, but it's too expensive for him and have too many problems. They will probably win their Japanese lawsuit, but close their major operation in Saskatchewan, costing them $7/month. Uranium will have its day in the sun.

The chart shows higher highs and lows. It's been in an uptrend, so buy a half position now, then buy more as it breaks $18-19. Average up.

Over the next three years as Japan turns reactors back on and China continues to build them, demand will come back. Reactors tend to carry 3-5 years of inventory on site. He thinks they will re-establish themselves and demand will come back. (Analysts’ price target is $18.13)

They won the first round against the Canadian government over a tax issue and they may win the second. They also have litigation in Japan that they will likely win. Uranium prices are doing better than better. He likes CCO but it's too expensive right now. It's a contrarian play for sure.

There is secular growth and they are cyclical. We are starting to make a turn. We are seeing good risk/reward in this area. He would be buying it here. He bought an EFT in the area just this week.