Cineplex Inc

CGX-T

One challenge is the margin on movies makes it hard to make money. Movie going is slowing down. Better opportunities elsewhere. Free cash flow is being reinvested in things that may or may not work. Dividend may be safe, but there's no growth.

They report on the 14th. The stock has pulled back, but so have American cinema stocks. They have been diversifying away from cinemas, which adds debt. But long-term, management believes this is the right strategy. The Rec Room is gaining traction. She bought CGX years ago for the dividend, but their investing in other areas make her wait-and-see. Disney hits have been driving traffic. Also, concession spending continues to grow, and CGX now offers alcohol.

The chart shows that it can go further down. The motion is still down trending. The stock hasn’t been at these levels since ages. Volume is also declining so there will be more sellers in the next few weeks.

(A Top Pick Sep 17/18, Down 24%) He thought it was safe to buy when it had already fallen a lot. It was showing some supportive price momentum, but they missed earnings and it fell. Earnings continue to suffer and the stock is trading lower. The payout ratio is 140% of cash flow, so he exited. Yield 7.8%

The company is still a box office play. It really depends on the film slate. The stock is at the cheapest it's been with a very high dividend. The payout ratio is very high, though it should come down to a safer level next year. He thinks they will turn around and is a good value here.

One of the largest technology companies on the TSX. This is one of the most expensive, but even though, it trades to a hefty discount to a company like Accenture in the US. They need to have a positive book to bill ratio. They have to announce sizeable acquisitions. He is holding but has trimmed a little.

The stock has come off recently by an extreme amount. The management team has done a great job over a long period of time but he cannot see the same business model and dividend in ten years.

He used to like it, but they moved too slowly into other businesses. Theatre-going is dying, and CGX lives and dies according to the movie slate. What they're doing elsewhere is fine, but too slowly. Okay to hold this.

Diversifying, last quarter was good. Dividend safe. For his clients, not the best idea. Still holds personally. Undervalued here at $26. Looks like they're turning the ship around. Lot of free cash flow.

It's struggled over the years, taking free cash flow and investing in areas beyond the screen. They're in a declining business. He's been studying it, but hasn't stepped in. Be careful here. The 7% yield is safe for now, but he'd sell it now.

The future for them is focusing on their rec-room. Their menu boards have expanded into subway in the US. They are growing there. He has always thought the stock was overpriced because investors were chasing yield. After a weak first quarter, numbers were not that great. They pay out a lot of their cash flow. The movie theatre industry is not dead.

It has a strong position but in an industry that is in a secular decline. In the US we are seeing the same. The box office is not growing so they need to increase the ancillary revenues. He likes the strategy of the rec room and increase sales in liquor and pop corn. Still not enough for him to be a sleep well at night stock. (Analysts’ price target is $31.05)

He owned in the past. He got stopped out. Yield is 7%. 1700 screens and 165 theaters. They don't have control over the film slate but they do have control on the 70 million people that come every year and diversifying the offering and they are doing that with the rec rooms and so forth. People are staying at hoe and watching Netflix. A tough one.

A past pick that he has owned and sold over the years. They're doing a good job with the Rec Room and golfing. It depends on the quality of the films. Great managers and pays a 6.7% dividend. NFL Sunday has potential.