Opinions Stockchase Insights
Cineplex IncCGX.TORISKYJul 12, 2023
Stockchase InsightsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
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He bought it during Covid, but he's still waiting for its rebound. Q3 and Q4 had disappointing box office. Q1 is better, though, with a strong December 2025. The Blue Jays' playoff run last October hurt their box office. Also, their CEO will retire at the end of the year; CGX could be sold before he goes.
Jerome HassChart hasn't always been as ugly as it's been recently. Used to be a stock market darling. Disagrees that streaming will demolish it.
Real catalyst is a huge bonus to the retiring CEO and other management if they sell the business by end of 2026. There has to be a bid for the company by the end of June 2026. Risk/return is fantastic. His valuation of the company remains $34. No dividend.
Jerome HassWell managed. With NFLX, video on demand, and the changing landscape of movies, it's not the same company it used to be. Could be more assets to divest, and could capitalize on real estate. Still, not sure what next move is. Look to exit.
As to what to move to, though it depends what's already in your portfolio, he still really likes energy infrastructure companies. See his Top Picks for some ideas.
It was a darling, a great business years ago that generated tons of free cash flow. He once owned it. Then, it was supposed to be bought, but bad luck saw Covid hit and the deal died. Great management and still a good business that generates cash, but times have changed--there are many streaming services. They are paying down debt, which is a little high.
Trying to diversify. Q4 was steady, improving box office, strong roster of movies. Showing more dependable FCF. Tough stock in a tough industry. Very cheap at 9x 2026. Hasn't had steady earnings for years. Can have a good run when movie slate is strong.
Buy at $6-7, sell on strength. Dividend probably not coming back.
Current share price reflecting value of business much better than during the pandemic. Attendance numbers continue to remain flat even with new steaming services. Expecting single digit growth of revenue. Brand name is very strong with large share of market. Cinema experience is still very good.
Jerome Hass
Not your highest-quality play. Trying to get approval to extend debt schedule. If approved, will add flexibility and improve free cashflows. If all goes well, may be able to reinstate dividend. But a lot has to go right. Pricey at 27x. High risk, but now would be the time to allocate some capital. A lot of the bad news is already out.
Don't own in a registered account, as you want to take capital losses if you're wrong.
Covid hammered them, while a British company tried to buy them but aborted that deal (now in a lawsuit). It's not cheap seeing a movie, but he goes now and then. Movies are coming back, though. You can't duplicate the experience at home. Still a lot of uncertainty with this stock, though.
Revenue growth is coming back a bit, with lower comparables from last year helping the year-over-year figures. Its debt levels are high, with net debt of $1.9B, and a net debt/EBITDA of 6.8X. Interest costs are $137M (last 12 months) and these will likely rise a bit with higher rates. 12-month cash flow was $116M and therein lies the problem. The debt is mostly due in the next five years. With attendance back, and a decent film slate, bankruptcy is becoming less of a concern, but it is still hard to paint a really positive picture here because of the leverage.
It is somewhat cheap (0.4X forward sales), but also has a fairly high forward P/E of 20.2X. It could become a takeover target, however, we would not place a high level of probability on that at these current levels.
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