Opinions
Tyler Mordy
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLK-N
DON'T BUY
Sep 06, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The tech sector is trading at 28x forward PE, back to the pre-Covid peak. Tech trades at a 45% premium to the overall market while the 10-year average is 9% premium. During the tech bubble it was a 53% premium. He gets the AI enthusiasm, but doesn't understand the tech disconnect from higher rates. The Fed has said it will increase rates. Tech stocks are expensive. Tech outflows have been the highest in the past 10 weeks. We'll test 4,200 on the S&P and could run further if it breaks above that. If it doesn't, we'll see.
Sector is performing well. Small pullback from October to November, which is good as it sets up a rally. Tech starts to perform well at this time of year into January, seeing some momentum, can do well for the next few months. Rising bottoms, a very positive pattern. Breaking out from the previous level. That all shows an ascending triangle.
This week, the market nearly broke below all key support levels, including the XLK (tech index). It looks very negative now, showing a sell signal. Inskip fears XLK could fall to $225, the next floor of support and the 26-week moving average. Bearish.
Technology this year has outperformed everything. He thinks that Technology is facing headwinds going forward in the way of more regulation as they are seen as monopolistic giants abusing their power. He thinks this ETF is going to do OK but there is more value in other sectors. The GICS classification is changing a little and telecommunications is moving to the communications sector, so this ETF will be affected. High liquid, low cost highly efficient way to get exposure to the sector.