Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

419.33

+13.03 (3.21%)

as of Oct 5, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

62 watching

COMMENT

Largest independent refinery/gas marketing in North America. Margins are squeezed and it is not profitable to be in this business. Refineries are up for sale or are being closed so in the long run this will be good as capacity comes down.

DON'T BUY

Largest independent oil refiner and marketer in North America. Don't own oil wells. They buy oil, refine and sell through their own gas stations or wholesale it out. Dependent on margins that the market gives them at the time. In the last year or so, it has not been a great business to be in. You have to watch what the margins are.

COMMENT

Refiners tend to do a little bit better in the summer. If you expect energy prices to hold these levels and work higher, you will likely do better in a producer rather than a refiner.

BUY

His model price is $34.87, a 75% positive differential.

COMMENT

Crack spread has been going up nicely from $4 to about $15 in the last 3 weeks. Even though this company is lagging other companies he wouldn't worry about it. One of the biggest and most liquid and will play catch-up. If the crack spread narrows, the price of the stock will drop again.

BUY

Refinery and makes its money from the crack spread. Gasoline just made a reverse head and shoulders pattern implying that gasoline/heating oil prices are starting to move very strongly relative to crude oil. Very positive fundamentally. Stock looks like it has been oversold. Has a good chance of getting close to its breakdown point of $46.

DON'T BUY

Started to close some capacity at some of their refineries because the crack spreads have not been favourable. This is why the stock price has come down. Best in class as far as refineries are concerned but this is not the right time.

DON'T BUY

Had a little bit of positive news on draws on US inventory today but it is hard to be bullish on refiners. Catalytic spreads are way down. You'll have to see a recovery by the consumer first.

DON'T BUY

Refineries are almost structured to be trading vehicles rather than long-term holds. Trading is tough at the best of times, let alone these times.

HOLD

Right now you don't want to be buying independent refineries. There are a lot of heavy oil refineries under development that are going to come out globally. If you own, Hold until the heating season and the early parts of the winter, as there is some seasonality in the share price.

BUY

One of the largest refiners in the US. Benefiting right now because of falling oil prices. This is a stock that he was looking at but bought Marathon Oil (MRO-N) instead.

COMMENT

Refiners have been hit pretty hard. With the price of oil going down, the market should be bullish on refiners but he feels oil will hold at $100. This is a value play and could be good as a long-term play.

WAIT

He is very positive on refining. This is a bear market but on a longer time horizon the assets should be worth an awful lot. There is excess refining capacity right now. On a 2 or 3 year basis, it's a great time to buy. However, this one can go a lot lower.

COMMENT

Has been caught up in the squeeze on refinery margins. With the current retreat of crude, refinery margins might improve so there could be a bit of a bounce back. You could get more protected exposure through Petro-Can (PCA-T) or one of the integrateds in Canada.

BUY

Largest independent refining and marketer in the US of gasoline. Has suffered greatly as oil prices have gone up. Margins at the refining level and retail level has shrunk. Drop in oil prices is bullish for this company.

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Valero Energy Corp (VLO)