Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

397.04

+14.09 (3.68%)

as of Sep 15, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

62 watching

DON'T BUY

If you are based in the mid west US or most of Canada you are buying oil at West Texas prices. Refineries in mid US and most of Canada have been very profitable. VLO is a mixture of both east coast and mid west US. You've probably seen the best in prices here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 20/11. Down 14.68%.) Crack spreads are over $30. A good name to hold. Still likes.

DON'T BUY

Would stay away from the refiners right now. Crack spreads have tightened right now.

TOP PICK

Cracking margin has really blown out. They are a refining company. Lot of refining capability. They have a valuable business model and they have diversity. They are trading at a discount to pier group.

COMMENT

Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)

BUY

His model price is $44.50, a 45% positive differential. These stocks are very cyclical and pricing has to be exactly right in order for the refiners to make money.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Refining sector has been one of the most horrible ones over the last couple of years. Still too much capacity and too much inventory and nobody is making any money.

SELL

(Market Call Minute) It refines and he is negative on refineries.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Pre-eminent refining company. Refining is in a tough spot but oil prices will go up.

DON'T BUY

While oil price has been going up, demand has not. This one is not attractive enough over the long term to be in it.

COMMENT

Refiners have had a very challenging period. Going forward there are other opportunities to put your money, as he doesn't see a dramatic recovery in the sector.

HOLD

Crack spreads are not moving up. Can refine many grades of crude but they don't get paid for this. Can't see any upside.

COMMENT

Largest independent refinery/gas marketing in North America. Margins are squeezed and it is not profitable to be in this business. Refineries are up for sale or are being closed so in the long run this will be good as capacity comes down.

DON'T BUY

Largest independent oil refiner and marketer in North America. Don't own oil wells. They buy oil, refine and sell through their own gas stations or wholesale it out. Dependent on margins that the market gives them at the time. In the last year or so, it has not been a great business to be in. You have to watch what the margins are.

COMMENT

Refiners tend to do a little bit better in the summer. If you expect energy prices to hold these levels and work higher, you will likely do better in a producer rather than a refiner.

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Valero Energy Corp (VLO)