Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.TO)

Would prefer TOU over VET. The challenge is the stressed balance sheet for these energy providers. VET has some of the worst price momentum, value, volatility and earnings profile in terms of current return on equity. They can move quickly if they look like they will survive. If you are looking for a huge amount of leverage and upside for a recovery, you could own VET but TOU is the more stable choice.

A good operator with fine internationally diversification. They cut their high dividend, but had to and won't return to that level. We live in a different world with lower oil prices and demand. VET's balance sheet is okay and this will survive. That said, he prefers Tourmaline Oil which has more cash.

Look like value, going to be volatile. If oil spikes, you can make a quick buck. Very good company, but in a tough industry. If he were to own energy, he'd look at the bigger players like SU or CNQ. This would be a gamble. Better places for your money than in energy.

VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.

The only change you will see from the company is less dividends with debt pay down being the focus. Everything else is really the commodity price. Energy is generally out of favour. It has typically been a good quality dividend payer. He got out before the major downdraft. They will focus on paying down debt before re-instating the dividend. If you are looking for an energy stock, then why not get one paying a dividend like CNQ-T.

ARX vs VET ARX holds super high quality liquids assets in the Montney formation. VET has a more diversified production slate including Australia and the Netherlands as well as Canada. The US has shut in 1.4 million barrels a day, this has reduced associated natural gas production. This will tighten the natural gas markets making it much more bullish. This is helpful for ARX, more so. He has not been a huge supporter of the VET management team and is less bullish on European natural gas markets (where VET is more active). ARX also provides a better dividend stream.

(A Top Pick Apr 25/19, Down 83%) With an exposure to European natural gas markets it was attractive. He sold last June into ARX when it began to collapse with other energy holdings. They have had to restrict or cut their dividend several times. The energy space will continue to be a tough environment.

Fed bailout? He has no idea yet if VET or PXT would qualify if there was a Federal government incentive. He does not expect a bailout; rather, a lump sum of money available for financing.