Greg Newman Uber UBER-N TOP PICK Nov 08, 2024

He sold some shares a few weeks ago. Good news is that robo-taxis won't happen for a while. Bad news is that robo will cost somebody more, and he can't figure out the economics, but will slow down growth.

Valuation keeps him out. Some plays you just miss. Amazed by how well it's navigated competition and expanding delivery services. Management's done an outstanding job. 

Sitting now atop its 50- and 200-day moving averages and finding support.

Is held back by a misconception that ride-sharing and autonomous driving will dislocate Uber. Wrong. Uber already partners with Waymo, so will participate in that. Uber is undervalued.

Has grown cashflows, very encouraging. Taking share from LYFT. Over several years stock's been volatile, but hasn't done that much due to looming robotaxis and autonomous vehicles. If that picks up steam, competitive dynamics change; UBER would move from handling both supply and demand, to being just one of many suppliers chasing demand.

Multiple's come down, showing good fundamentals. Watch the space. Waymo has no experience in the space, whereas Uber's really well positioned. That partnership will work well at first, but it's the future he's concerned about.

Tesla's reputation has taken a hit this year due to Musk's highly polarizing involvement with Trump. This has taken the robotaxi story off the table, allowing Uber to roar. But robotaxis were never a threat to Uber in the first place.

Like Tesla, they need to get to self-driving cars and to be the first there. It's anyone's guess if they do. It's okay to hold a small amount, but not a lot.

Rough ride along with the market. Good component of a portfolio, given all the tariff situations. Part of the issue is that the market incorrectly looks at autonomous driving as having one winner and the rest losers. See his blog at goodreid.com under Insights.

Largest ride-sharing and delivery company in the world. Great business model. His son at university uses it all the time (and Richard's paying for it). New CEO has done a spectacular job. Profits are on the rise. Ride-sharing is slightly less than 1% of all driving, massive opportunity ahead. Expanding to smaller cities. Robotaxis are in their future. No dividend.

Missed 2 key metrics. Past year has been quite sideways, more of a trading stock. Above 200-day MA, but that 200-day MA has been quite flat. Forward earnings estimates have ratcheted down a bit, but you're still paying ~30x forward PE. That's problematic. 200-week MA seems to be steadily moving higher.

Longer term, will face lots of competition in the space as well as regulatory risk.