Dennis da SilvaTamarack Valley EnergyTVE.TOHOLDNov 15, 2023

Using water-flood technology to pick up production. Great growth, expecting 15% production growth in the next 6 months. Generates lots of cash. Recently increased dividend by 25%, increasing share buybacks. 

International investors are coming back to Canada for energy. Foresees multiple expansion as well as pricing power. Yield is 1.19%.

Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile. He expects oil to return to the $70s, but it will take time to clear the Strait of Hormuz.

Likes it even more today. Proved that aggregating resources in the most economic play in NA, the Clearwater, has paid off. Water flooding is really working. Potentially 50% more upside in a year, but just let it play out.

Doing extremely well, a great chart, benefiting from the oil price rally.

Loves it. Very best play in the very best rock in the very best place to be (Canada). Technology and water flooding keeps getting better. Decades of drilling inventory. Don't trim.

Probably the leader in the Canadian oil patch. Highest-quality way to be invested in the Clearwater. Climbing steadily (with recent oil price), and will correct at various times. We're in early stages of energy bull market.

Don't be too cute with your timing. He'd step in today.

Really well run. Successfully pivoted away from mature assets with limited running room. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater. At the bleeding edge of using water flooding, phenomenal results. Expects a good report on year-end reserves (company expects at least 25 years of running room in this play). Continued success should bring multiple expansion. Sees 50-ish% upside from here with $60-70 oil over next 1-2 years.

A significantly cheaper alternative to HWX. Equally good management and properties, with same amount of running room and perhaps even more delineated inventory. Core holding for him, doesn't anticipate trimming.

Management is solid and there has been recent insider buying. The balance sheet is very strong and good earnings/cash flow growth is expected. It can't control commodity prices but can control its costs and production (both good). The dividend is well-covered and has growth potential. Stock momentum is solid. It may be an acquisition target. Its drilling has shown good success and its assets are quality producers. There is a lot to like here.
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Still a very large shareholder, about 8% weighting in his fund. Phenomenal job. Well results are absolutely spectacular. Lots of running room, 20+ years of drilling inventory. Trades at attractive forward multiple of 5.5x, fair would be 6-7x. On a conservative oil price, 20-30% upside from here, but he's more optimistic on oil.

One of only a very few oil names he owns.

Pretty volatile. Fast-growing. Chart shows recent strong momentum. Runup driven by production growth and cost discipline. Sensitive to oil prices and operational risk. Average target price is over $8. Single-digit upside potentially from here. Stock's never actually hit analysts' targets.

Recently raised dividend, posted strong earnings growth. If you own, consider trimming on strength and add on dips. For new buyers, wait for a pullback or at least consolidation.

Her energy exposure tends to be larger-cap such as CNQ and ENB.

Strong, and getting better. 90% of production coming from the Clearwater, which has very low decline and high return. Aggressively shifting wells to new technology earlier in the life cycle. Has an edge in the industry. 

Paying down debt using 60% of cashflow, now close to zero. Increasing shareholder returns. Believes it can grow production 5-10% a year over next several years, easily funded with cashflow. Dividend will grow ~20% a year for next 3-4 years. Yield is 2.12%.

Has really turned things around -- divesting tired assets and focusing on the Clearwater, where they're having spectacular results. At least 20 years of stay-flat inventory.

His firm prefers the larger caps for safety, durability, and dividend yield. For smaller caps to outperform, you need the commodity to work for you (and right now oil and gas are working against). Gradually people are returning to Canada on the basis of our lower decline rates, better prospects for transporting oil out of the country, and a government that might support further investment. All that's helping to buoy a company like this, that would normally be down with the commodity prices. 

Good case to be made that oil prices could rally from here. 

Great little company. Has now seen 6 consecutive quarters of beats and some raises. Intermediate oil producer busy consolidating in Clearwater, one of the hottest plays in Canada. Production has grown ~10% YOY on average. Reduced net debt by 17% and share count by 6%. High-efficiency wells, strong FCF. Very good netbacks.

Looking for more moderate growth, especially with oil in low $60s. Sees a probable CAGR of 3-5% over next 5 years (which could ramp up with higher oil). Breakeven is in low $40s US per barrel. Returns ~60% of capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Yield is 2.54%.

TVE has reported record production and upped its production guidance for the year. It has also made a nice bolt-on acquisition and is seeing some broker target price upgrades. YTD return is now 14.6%. While it is not beyond possibility, we would not see the move due to a takeover. Much of the gain is due to company reasons and not necessarily correlated to pipeline stocks. We would remain comfortable as buyers. 
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