Opinions Eric Nuttall
Tamarack Valley EnergyTVE.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSMay 23, 2024
Eric NuttallStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
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Unlike the Oil Sands, TVE is not allowed to book as many of their reserves upfront. You must invest to water flood, but as time goes on, the returns increase. Ask, what's the cash I'm getting in this quarter? And add atop that the reserves they're booking in that quarter. He expects the Clearwater deal to close.
It has had some exploration success and getting better recovery techniques. They are streamlining what they do. It is getting more interest and hitting new highs. After consolidation it should accelerate again.
Bruce Campbell (2)He's been very happy owning this. It trends up long-term, though the pace has slowed.
Colin Cieszynski(Note: Doesn't own, but he does own HWX and likes the upcoming merger.)
In oil sands, but not one of the major players. Merger consolidates 2 names in the region, should see a lot of cost savings. Merged entity will be a bigger player, grabbing more institutional attention. You can play the merger through either company.
He's done well at a $4 cost. When to sell? Complicated because TVE is buying Headwater. The buying price depends on the price of oil. TVE stock is approaching fair value now with a little upside. Buy on dips.
Eric NuttallManagement has done a spectacular job. Their economics are unbelievable. They can squeeze more oil out by injecting water. He has trimmed some but still holds a lot. He sees further upside - 15 to 20% over the next couple of years at $70 oil. At $80 dollar oil he sees $19 to $20 per share.
Eric Nuttall
Solid team, great execution. Hold, or continue to add to modestly. No reason to sell.
John StephensonLikes it a lot. Continues to focus on what it's good at in the Clearwater. Smaller cap, so expect more growth and more volatility. Stock's not done, potential acquisition target.
Bruce Campbell (2)Using water-flood technology to pick up production. Great growth, expecting 15% production growth in the next 6 months. Generates lots of cash. Recently increased dividend by 25%, increasing share buybacks.
International investors are coming back to Canada for energy. Foresees multiple expansion as well as pricing power. Yield is 1.19%.
David BurrowsLike both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile. He expects oil to return to the $70s, but it will take time to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
Likes it even more today. Proved that aggregating resources in the most economic play in NA, the Clearwater, has paid off. Water flooding is really working. Potentially 50% more upside in a year, but just let it play out.
Eric NuttallDoing extremely well, a great chart, benefiting from the oil price rally.
Colin CieszynskiLoves it. Very best play in the very best rock in the very best place to be (Canada). Technology and water flooding keeps getting better. Decades of drilling inventory. Don't trim.
Eric Nuttall
Deeply out of favour. Active doing M&A, created an overhang. Timing and quality of assets purchased was very good.
Can't find any negative comments on its assets. May have overpaid slightly for its most recent purchase, but very high quality. Hit numbers for 2 quarters in a row, so his confidence in execution is increasing. 20% free cashflow yield. Needs to pay down debt, and then 75% of free cashflow can return to shareholders. He trimmed recently, from a 10% position to 6.5%. Implied price target is almost $7. Share price is getting increasingly attractive.