TC Energy (TRP.TO)

(Top Pick Feb 06/12, Up 21.35%) Getting pretty fully valued, but he likes it as a value place in markets. 4% yield and some growth over next 5 years. Keystone is important over the next little while. Thinks there is a couple of dollars left in it.

Had a huge move of late. Likes the outlook for it very much. Waiting for the Keystone decision. Have a huge capital expenditure program on their plate. Wouldn’t be buying it at these levels. His target price is in the very low $50’s.

$37.34 model, -23% from closing price. He finds all utilities expensive here. If we get a great rotation from bonds into equities, this group will be hurt.

He just divested the other day for no other reasons than he had a lot of profit. He wanted to protect against a gap recently. Thinks this is a good long term name but he thinks he can get it back cheaper: $43-$45

With the White House’s outlook on the environment, does the US really need our gas/oil through this pipeline or will there be a debate and a Hold on it? Hopes Obama approves Keystone. He should, given the shortage of heavy oil in the Gulf refineries. Also, the possibility of getting heavy oil from more friendly sources than Venezuela. If he disapproves, this stock will get hit a bit. However, they are doing some very interesting things in BC with the line to the coast for the shipment of natural gas for conversion to LNG. There is also transmission of oil in most of its pipeline to the east.

Temptation is always to sell Winners too soon. Would have been one of his Top Picks but didn’t want to be boring by given the same ones over and over again. Has considerable upside left. $13 billion in projects in advance stages that should come online in the next 12-24 months. Best growth visibility in years. Regulatory clouds are parting. Has the Keystone upside, which he thinks will go through with Obama’s 2^nd term. Converting mainline to oil and shipping oil east. Big benefits and impacts to Canada’s economy.

(Market Call Minute.) Recently sold his holdings in order to go into something else that had a better yield.

Thinks that the current price is a bit lofty. They are talking about reversing the mainline to take oil, instead of gas, east. There are numbers that suggest this might be worth $8 a share but he thinks a lot of this is already in the current stock price.

With all the growing production of oil/gas in North America, who is going to benefit. Doesn’t like the producers. Pipelines must have billions of new dollars at their fingertips. They’ll enjoy a tailwind for 2 decades.

Some, at least, of the approval of the Keystone pipeline by the US has been priced into the stock.

1^st Preferred Y’s. This has a 5.6% dividend, a straight perpetual, and the company can Call it but you do not have a Put option on it. Thinks that this will get called sometime over the next 2 years.

(A Top Pick Nov 30/11. Up 10.39%.) Thinks Keystone goes through regardless of who gets in. Growth visibility has never been better. His target is $52. Add to your holdings on any kind of weakness.

(A Top Pick Oct 17/11. Up 4.3%.) Preferred 4.4% Series 5. Callable on January 30/16. Happy with a 4.4% dividend.

Have about $3.5-$4 billion in projects that have been approved and that they are already starting to work on. Also, have $13-$14 billion of projects that are pending approval. This includes the Keystone xl project. There is so much out there that he thinks will get approved and that will be accretive to earnings and growth. Good dividend yield which they regularly grow.

or people who hold it for longer term yield, it is ok. Going forward, the pipeline in the US could get approved. Look at what the dividend increases over time could be and the modest capital appreciation. Could see it pull back 10% or so in a bad environment. He would hold on to it. It is fairly valued.