TC Energy (TRP.TO)

Temptation is always to sell Winners too soon. Would have been one of his Top Picks but didn’t want to be boring by given the same ones over and over again. Has considerable upside left. $13 billion in projects in advance stages that should come online in the next 12-24 months. Best growth visibility in years. Regulatory clouds are parting. Has the Keystone upside, which he thinks will go through with Obama’s 2^nd term. Converting mainline to oil and shipping oil east. Big benefits and impacts to Canada’s economy.

(Market Call Minute.) Recently sold his holdings in order to go into something else that had a better yield.

Thinks that the current price is a bit lofty. They are talking about reversing the mainline to take oil, instead of gas, east. There are numbers that suggest this might be worth $8 a share but he thinks a lot of this is already in the current stock price.

With all the growing production of oil/gas in North America, who is going to benefit. Doesn’t like the producers. Pipelines must have billions of new dollars at their fingertips. They’ll enjoy a tailwind for 2 decades.

Some, at least, of the approval of the Keystone pipeline by the US has been priced into the stock.

1^st Preferred Y’s. This has a 5.6% dividend, a straight perpetual, and the company can Call it but you do not have a Put option on it. Thinks that this will get called sometime over the next 2 years.

(A Top Pick Nov 30/11. Up 10.39%.) Thinks Keystone goes through regardless of who gets in. Growth visibility has never been better. His target is $52. Add to your holdings on any kind of weakness.

(A Top Pick Oct 17/11. Up 4.3%.) Preferred 4.4% Series 5. Callable on January 30/16. Happy with a 4.4% dividend.

Have about $3.5-$4 billion in projects that have been approved and that they are already starting to work on. Also, have $13-$14 billion of projects that are pending approval. This includes the Keystone xl project. There is so much out there that he thinks will get approved and that will be accretive to earnings and growth. Good dividend yield which they regularly grow.

or people who hold it for longer term yield, it is ok. Going forward, the pipeline in the US could get approved. Look at what the dividend increases over time could be and the modest capital appreciation. Could see it pull back 10% or so in a bad environment. He would hold on to it. It is fairly valued.

Will the outcome of the US presidential election impact the timing of the Keystone pipeline? When it is approved how much of a bump will it give to the stock? If Mitt Romney gets in, he has already publicly stated that he will approve it the 1^st day in office. Expect there will also be approval if Obama gets in, particularly when the pipeline is being redirected. Not so sure it will get a big bump.

This one has been struggling for a number of reasons and one of the major reasons is that it ships mostly natural gas. Their main pipeline has been struggling with decreased volumes. They have tried to make up for the decreased volumes by raising the price they charge so then customers have shipped even less. Keystone problem is totally political and totally ridiculous. He would prefer Enbridge (ENB-T). Both of them are trading at fairly rich valuations.

It wants to go trans-border and has some very difficult issues with its main line going from west to east with natural gas. Have political issues with its shippers. The potential lies with the Keystone pipeline going south, which he does believe will be built regardless of who wins the presidential election.

(Top Pick Oct. 05/11, Up 15.58%)

Pipeline returns have never been stronger and there is a more visible earnings growth thesis than any other sector that he has seen. Keystone will go through. It is just one of the regulatory overhangs that will help unlock shareholder value. Have $13 billion of projects, pretty well paid for, coming on over the next 12-24 months which will be accretive. Longer-term growth initiatives all look really accretive. 5% dividend growth since 2007 will probably continue.