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Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Jun 20/11, Down 38.67%) Is very compelling at today’s price. He has averaged down a little in some cases. Markets were confused over the last few years with changes in strategic direction and management changes. But they are an international company with very good properties and potential to earn significant cash flow.
TOP PICK
Management has used the revenue they get from the North Sea to move into natural gas exploration in the shale areas in the US. Looking to hold this for 3 to 5 years.
DON'T BUY
Has been a painful stock to own because it has been a poor performer. History of management overpromising and under delivering. Management changed but still haven't been beating expectations. If you own, it is too late to Sell. If there is some recovery in energy stocks, you might want to switch into something a little better.
DON'T BUY
Went from $24 down to $10. CEO has not been able to meet expectations. Had problems with their North Sea production. There are many other names that he thinks are better run, that are cleaner story and are not relying on the natural gas recovery. Could be a value trap.
COMMENT
Should he go Short and covert at $8.40? He probably wouldn't Short this one. It should have been done at the breakout level of about $12. Some of the indicators are sort of bottoming and it could have a spike upside.
DON'T BUY
Chart is showing a descending triangle, which is bearish. Has the potential to even drop further.
TOP PICK
Preferred A Series, 4.2%. This is a rate reset with a reset date of Dec 31/16. Recently sold some non-core assets. Raised $1.9 billion to refocus on natural gas plays. Yield to reset of 4.77%.
TOP PICK
Into a lot of gas plays, but more emphasis recently on liquids. Management has addressed many of their problems and are well diversified internationally. Have some excellent properties and holdings in Asia where there is a strong demand.
DON'T BUY
Not his favourite. A bit too gassy. They are trying hard to get a little more geographic focused. Looks statistically cheap but thinks there are better names in the oil patch.
DON'T BUY
Not one of the best stewards of capital. Have had a steady decline of return on capital versus their peers. Looks at this as a “show me” story in 2012.
BUY
Was a really poor performer. Thinks it is washed out and you wont get hurt buying it here. Hold for one to three years.
BUY
Sold a parcel of coal to day. Probably the most international company today. A headache for pension managers but he have not got liftoff on this name. They are shedding a lot of their non-core assets. It’s probably a good time to be in there.
HOLD
This is a company that has always struggled. Have spent a lot of money buying a lot of oil/gas assets. You could see this bounce back up to the $18 range but wouldn't be in a hurry to buy this one.
TOP PICK
Recommended based on cheap valuation. Suffered the last year or so. Most recent quarter the gas side of production was a little higher and people were hoping, thought more would go to liquids. Company has adjusted the strategic plan over the last years but when you look at the properties, it is quite compelling at these levels.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
An underperformer last year but is starting to work out. Reported earnings last week. Guidance was nothing special but is undervalued. Was trading at 3.5 X cash flow but should trade at 5X cash flow per share. Nice dividend and have lots of nice properties. He values it between $15 and $18.
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