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Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

PARTIAL SELL

Has been very strong for a number of months and we are in the top end of the range that it has been trading in so you should think about taking some money off the table. However, the geopolitical risks are a wild card and if it heats up then the energy stocks could break out here.

BUY

Have unique assets all around the world. Investors did not pay for the global diversification. Resurgence in a global type company that also has unique assets in North America. With gas rebounding this one has rebounded and he has continued to hold it. It will be interesting as gas recovers. Activist interest by Ont Teachers Fund may indicate a bottom.

COMMENT

Not a pure crude oil play. Fairly weighted towards natural gas, which is what drags it down. Cheap on a multiple basis. Talk on the street is that this could be a takeover target. Most people think the stock is worth $18-$19. You are probably better off with something that has demonstrated a little bit better operational efficiency over the last 3-4 years such as Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). He is looking to buy this in the next couple of days.

TOP PICK

Former management used to overpromise and under deliver. New management has some assets which have been a perennial problem and they are selling 49% of that to a Chinese company. Will concentrate on their core assets. Really cheap. Has a lot of natural gas exposure and he likes the longer-term outlook for natural gas.

WAIT

The feeling is that they could be next to be taken over. They have sold part of their assets and indicated there was another shoe to drop. She imagines they will wait to see how the next takeover goes. Wait for a correction in the stock before buying it.

WAIT

Likes it. Good chance that someone takes them over. Over 4000 barrels per day split between gas and oil. He is looking for a better entry point.

WAIT

(Market Call Minute) Would like to see a pull back to $10.63.

TOP PICK
Usually the best time to buy things is when people are throwing in the towel. In the last little while, they have brought in some new operating management. In the process of selling 49% of their North Sea venture to a Chinese company. He can see $18-$20 over the next 2-3 years.
HOLD
The Chinese involvement means that at some point it will get taken out.
BUY
They just sold off part of their interest in the North Sea where they had operating issues, which cleans up the company a bit. If you are bullish on oil and natural gas, which he is, then this is definitely a good one to hold. NAV is somewhere in the $15-$20 range. Feels that natural gas prices are going to move up pretty significantly in the next 12-18 months.
DON'T BUY
Has been a really tough investment for Canadian investors. Feels it’s a value trap right now. Sort of lost its way from a corporate direction.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes their portfolio. International and Canadian. Oil and Nat Gas. Vulnerable to oil prices going down. Book value is $9.98. Buy around $9
DON'T BUY
Cutting CapX by about 20% so they are responding to this environment. Shedding non-core assets. But too levered to natural gas, which is a tough place to be. Had a lot of operational issues out of the North Sea. Growing their natural gas liquids production but this is not a big enough component of their business.
DON'T BUY
Has being an under performer in the energy group in the last decade. Drilling huge wells in northern Iraq but the key driver is the shale gas in North America so it is hard to get excited about.
DON'T BUY
Used to be right at the top of his list, but then they went out and discovered shale gas. People are starting to shut in gas wells.
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