Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

(A Top Pick Dec 14/11. Down 2.28%.) Has been a disappointment, but on the positive side they threw out their president and brought in the former CEO of TransCanada Pipe (TRP-T) who wants to turn the company around.

Has had a rough year. Sold his holdings this summer when management was talking less bullishly about their outlook. New management has focused a little bit more on cost reductions, more possible growth. They still have a great international portfolio of projects. Thinks it is worth more split up then it is as an entity right now.

(Market Cal Minute) $9.28 model price -20% (downside).

There is a potential for a bottoming pattern. He is ok with it. It’s going to go up and down over the next few years. We are at the lower end of the trading range, but there are better stocks to own.

Has been weak because CEOs term came up and they did not re-new it. Stock tanked last Tuesday. People are disappointed with new CEOs communication and hopes he gets the message that he needs to move quickly. Needs a catalyst.

(Market Call Minute) It’s a messy company.

Has been a horrible performer for him but management is a great operator and very smart. They are downsizing the company and concentrating on the company’s best areas. In the short term, the market doesn’t like that.

Have a good new solid CEO who is going to refocus the company. North sea is not the growth side for this company; in fact it is a cash flow generator for the company. We need the company to continue to refocus its efforts in North America and in South America. Southeast Asia assets are really valuable but the market really needs to see some more focus from the company to see a better growth opportunity. 2.5% yield.

Has never really liked this one very much. Felt it was the underperformer of the majors. Could be a takeover target at some point but he wouldn’t buy on that basis.

(Top Pick Oct 31/11, Down 7.77%) Longer term, they have very attractive assets. Thinks there are some good things ahead for them. Management are incented and focused on fash flows and increasing value.

You can't get wildly bullish yet but it makes sense to accumulate. There is a major bottom developing. On the 5 years chart there is the potential for a major head and shoulders.

Usually he and his associate agree on everything however, his associate is very strong on this company and he is not. Under ideal circumstances, (sum of the parts valuation) the stock could be worth $20 but there is no indication that management is going to sell the parts and he has lost patience.

Have a new CEO, which potentially is a good thing. New CEO needs to coalesce around a strategy. Good company and certainly inexpensive relative to some of the other larger cap names but he would like to see a few quarters of operational results.

Model price is $10.97, a negative 21%. If this seriously breaks down through the $13 level it will go back to about $10.65 and this is a reasonable price for this company which is a support for fundamental reasons as well as its balance sheet.

Chart shows some pretty serious overhead resistance which he considers a phase 1 consolidation. The next step would be a breakout and he waits for a breakout before he can confirm that the bottom formation is complete.